2019 - Round 3 : So, You Thought Last Week Was Hard to Tip?

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MoS’ best forecasters currently have a 50% head-to-head tipping record, an MAE of just under 37 points per game, and a negative log probability score, so they could all do with a slightly more predictable round this week, but that’s not what the fixture chef has just dolloped on their plate.

Eight of the nine contests have expected victory margins, according to the TAB bookmaker at time of writing, of roughly three goals or less, which has left the Dogs v Suns game to do all the work in lifting the all-game average above 15 points per game.

That average of 15.2 is the lowest for a Round 3 since 2012 (at least) and the lowest for any round in 2019. In fact, you’d have to go back to Round 13 of 2018 to find a lower average for a home-and-away round, and that particular round had only six games.

Interesting then to see what the MoS mob make of it.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Thanks partly to the large number of home team favourites again this week and the resulting compliant behaviour of Home Sweet Home, dissension amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters is quite low.

By far the most disagreement has come in the Thursday game, with four Tipsters opting for the underdog Cats (although RSMP_Simple’s margin forecast suggests its vote is not exactly a confident one).

Amongst the Margin Predictors, only the Fremantle v St Kilda game has produced a range much greater than about two-and-a-half goals. That Dockers v Saints game has forecasts starting at MoSSBODS_Marg’s prediction of a 5-point win for the Dockers and ending at C_Marg’s prediction of a 30-point win. There are some particularly narrow ranges this week, in three of the games not even reaching double-figures.

The mean expected margin across the nine games and all Margin Predictors is 14.2 points per game, which is about 0.8 points above last week’s average, and roughly 1 point below the TAB Bookmaker's average.

Bookie_3, C_Marg and MoSSBODS_Marg have the most extreme forecasts in four of the games, and MoSHBODS_Marg in three.

Turning lastly to the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, we find the largest range in percentage point terms in the final game of the round where the forecasts span around 23% points from about 56% to 79%. In four other games the range is from about 14 to 17%. MoSSBODS_Prob has the round's most extreme estimates in six contests, C_Prob and Bookie_LPSO in four.

WAGERS

Investors face only one head-to-head wager this week, with MoSHBODS precluded under its 2019 home-team-only wagering contract from lobbing cash at four away teams it would otherwise have backed. That sole bet is just over 4% of the Fund on Hawthorn at $1.48.

Three line bets complete the week’s stable, the largest of them 2.5% on St Kilda receiving 20.5 points start against Fremantle.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

These relatively subdued activity levels are reflected in the Ready Reckoner below, which reveals that only that Dockers v Saints game carries a net risk in excess of 2% of the original Combined Portfolio.

In total, almost 4% of the original Combined Portfolio is at risk across four games, and the maximum upside is just under 3%.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS' and MoSHBODS' opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.