2019 - Round 2 Results - Success Is Always Relative

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I think it’s in the nature of we humans to focus more on what we’ve narrowly missed than on what we’ve narrowly won, so I’ll try to avoid that bias here and reflect more on the fact that our debutant forecaster, MoSHPlay, is ahead of the bookies on head-to-head tips, probability forecasting, and - at least compared to Bookie_Hcap - on margin prediction.

All told, our Head-to-Head Tipsters managed only a combined 3.3 from 9 effort this week, our Margin Predictors managed only a collective mean absolute error (MAE) of 35.3 points per game, and the best of our Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, C_Prob and the MoS trio, registered mildly negative log probability scores.

As a result, we have MoSHPlay_Marg a co-leader on head-to-head tipping with a 50% record, MoSHBODS_Marg fourth on margin prediction with an MAE of about 37.8 points per game, and C_Prob - yes, C_Prob - atop the Leaderboard for head-to-head probability forecasting.

Focussing in on our debutant, MoSHPlay, its derivative forecasters had the round’s best head-to-head tipping performance of 5 from 9, the round’s best margin prediction performance of 33.3 points per game, and the round’s second-best head-to-head probability estimation performance, behind only C_Prob.

That margin prediction performance was enough to drag MoSHPlay_Marg up from 11th to 8th.

Probability Scores for the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors were entirely negative this week, but C_Prob’s was good enough to leave it atop the Leaderboard. We are, at least for now, living in unusual times.

WAGERS

Another profit for Investors this week, secured by the Gold Coast’s behind-laden and accordingly low-scoring victory over Fremantle on Sunday evening.

That result was enough to see both the Head-to-Head and Line Funds finishing in profit, though it couldn’t quite do the same for Over/Under Fund whose two losses by less than a goal were enough to see it finish slightly in the red.

At the end of the round, the Combined Portfolio is now up by 3.3% on a 14.5% ROI and a 0.2 turn.