2017 - Round 5 Results - MoSHBODS Snatches the Lead

This (extended) weekend, eight of the nine winners were ranked higher on the competition ladder than their opponents going into the round, but only seven were favourites. As a result, Consult The Ladder (CTL) recorded its equal-best single round result of the season so far.

That 8 from 9 performance from CTL moved it into a share of 2nd place amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters. It's now on 30 from 45 (67%) for the season, as are four other Tipsters. ENS_Linear's 7 from 9 performance was enough to leave it in 1st place, still 1 tip ahead of the gathering pack. 

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The only Tipster matching CTL's 8 from 9 was C_Marg, which has now created a three-game gap to the last-placed Home Sweet Home and has a 27 from 45 (60%) record.

The all-Tipster average for the round was 6.9 from 9, dragged down by scores of 6 from the two RSMP Tipsters and by Home Sweet Home.

Best amongst the Margin Predictors was Bookie_3, it one of only four Predictors to register a sub-30 mean absolute error (MAE) for the round.

Bookie_Hcap was one of that quartet and its 28.8 MAE was enough to lift it into 2nd place overall, just 0.7 points behind the new leader, MoSHBODS_Marg. MoSSBODS_Marg had the round's worst MAE of 32.5 points per game, and slipped from 1st to 3rd as a consequence.

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The all-Predictor average MAE for the round was 30.4 points per Predictor per game, which left the season-long all-Predictor average still sub-30 at 29.8 points per Predictor per game.

Just over 50 points now separates 1st from 9th on the Leaderboard, and only C_Marg, almost another 80 points further back, seems incapable of challenging for the lead at some stage during the season.

C_Marg's head-to-head probability predicting sibling, C_Prob, turned in a positive probability score this week, as did all of the Probability Predictors, though C_Prob's was lowest and Bookie-LPSO's highest. That left Bookie-LPSO at the top of the Leaderboard, ahead of Bookie-OE and Bookie-RE.

MoSSBODS_Marg, despite recording a slightly smaller probability score than MoSHBODS_Marg, held onto 4th place on the Leaderboard.

WAGERS

This week saw the largest single-round loss on wagering for the season, with almost 5c being shaved off the value of the Overall Portfolio, leaving it up now by a mere 0.2c on the season.

The overall loss was the result of a 6.0% Line Fund loss, a 4.3% Over/Under Fund loss, and a 3.6% Head-to-Head Fund loss. Only 5 of 14 wagers were collects.

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Across the three Funds now, only the Line Fund is in profit for the season.

The Roos have been the source of greatest losses from both the Head-to-Head and Line Funds, knocking 10.4c off the price of the Head-to-Head Fund from 4 losing wagers, and 6.6c off the price of the Line Fund from 2 losing and only 1 winning wager.

Adelaide have been the source of greatest profit, adding 12.2c to the Head-to-Head Fund from 3 successful wagers, and 14.1c to the Line Fund from 4 successful wagers.