MatterOfStats 2015 : Team Dashboard for Round 1

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Below is the first Team Dashboard for 2015 and, in keeping with the custom of Round 1 blog posts this season, I'll spend a little time explaining what's in the Dashboard.

The top section is fairly self-explanatory and routine, and sets out details of each team's competition points, overall offensive and defensive statistics, and Win/Loss record. For now, teams are sorted in the customary manner but, once bye season has commenced, I sort teams on the basis of competition points earned as a proportion of possible points earned, which can sometimes lead to orderings that differ from the official ladders.

The middle section records information about various offensive and defensive metrics that I've found to be associated with teams' winning and losing records. This includes information about Scoring Shot production and concession, and the conversion of these Scoring Shots. This week, for example, we see that Adelaide has generated 35 Scoring Shots per game and conceded 18. Also, it's converted 60% of those Scoring Shot opportunities into goals while allowing its opponents to convert only 50% of their opportunities. On the far right are details about how a team's Offensive and Defensive Scoring metrics would be expected to convert into wins and losses (as per the Win Production Function estimated in this blog) and how the actual win and loss performance of each team has compared to these expectations. After just one game, these metrics don't mean much, but they will mean a lot more as the season progresses.

Lastly, at the bottom of the table is information about the quarter-by-quarter performances of each team. Adelaide, for example, has won 100% of its 1st, 2nd and 4th terms, but 0% of its 3rd terms. Its percentage in Quarter 1s (points scored divided by points conceded multiplied by 100) is 308, and in Quarter 3s is 51. Note that the 4th Quarter rankings of all teams are currently undefined because Sydney has yet to concede a point in final terms.

These quarter-by-quarter statistics also don't yet mean much after a single round, but will become more interesting and relevant as the season progresses.

MatterOfStats 2014 : Team Dashboard for Round 23

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With this, the final Team Dashboard for the year, I thought I'd compile one last summary comparing each team's final ladder position with its ranking on the major metrics on the MoS Team Dashboard:

  • Adelaide (10th)
    • 3rd on Scoring Shot production
    • 5th on Opponent Scoring Shot conversion
    • 14th on Q1s, 2nd on Q2s, and 5th on Q3s
    • Won more than 50% of Q2s, Q3s and Q4s and outscored their opponents in Q2s and Q3s
    • Won 3.0 games fewer than their scoring statistics would suggest
  • Brisbane Lions (15th)
    • 9th on Scoring Shot conversion and 10th on Opponent Scoring Shot conversion
    • Won less 50% of Q1s, Q2s, Q3s and Q4s and were outscored by their opponents in all quarters
    • Won 2.7 games more than their scoring statistics would suggest
  •  Carlton (13th)
    • 4th on Scoring Shot conversion and 9th on Opponent Scoring Shot conversion
    • 8th on Q2s
    • Won 50% of Q2s and outscored their opponents in Q4s
    • Won 1.2 games fewer than their scoring statistics would suggest
  •  Collingwood (11th)
    • 17th on Scoring Shot conversion and 8th on Opponent Scoring Shot conversion
    • 7th on Q2s, 8th on Q3s, and 14th on Q4s
    • Won 50% of Q2s and outscored their opponents in Q2s and Q4s
    • Won 1.3 games more than their scoring statistics would suggest
  •  Essendon (7th)
    • 10th on Scoring Shot production and 4th on Opponent Scoring Shot production
    • 15th on Scoring Shot conversion  and 13th on Opponent Scoring Shot conversion
    • 3rd on Q1s, 11th on Q2s, and 13th on Q4s
    • Won more than 50% of Q1s and outscored their opponents in Q1s, Q3s and Q4s
    • Won 0.4 games more than their scoring statistics would suggest
  • Fremantle (4th)
    • 8th on Scoring Shot production
    • 8th on Q1s
    • Won more than 50% of Q1s, Q2s and Q4s and outscored their opponents in all four Quarters
    • Won 0.4 games fewer than their scoring statistics would suggest
  • Geelong (3rd)
    • 9th on Opponent Scoring Shot production
    • 14th on Scoring Shot conversion and 4th on Opponent Scoring Shot conversion
    • 15th on Q3s and 8th on Q4s
    • Won more than 50% of Q1s, Q2s and Q4s and outscored their opponents in Q1s, Q2s and Q4s
    • Won 3.2 games more than their scoring statistics would suggest
  • Gold Coast (12th)
    • 9th on Scoring Shot production
    • 6th on Scoring Shot conversion
    • 14th on Q1s, 2nd on Q2s, and 5th on Q3s
    • Won less than 50% of all four Quarters and outscored their opponents in Q3s and Q4s
    • Won 0.4 games more than their scoring statistics would suggest
  • GWS (16th)
    • 12th on Scoring Shot conversion
    • 14th on Q1s, 2nd on Q2s, and 5th on Q3s
    • Won less than 50% of all four Quarters and outscored by their opponents in all four Quarters
    • Won 0.6 games more than their scoring statistics would suggest
  • Hawthorn (2nd)
    • 6th on Opponent Scoring Shot production
    • 14th on Opponent Scoring Shot conversion
    • 5th on Q4s
    • Won more than 50% of all four Quarters and outscored their opponents in all four Quarters
    • Won 0.8 games fewer than their scoring statistics would suggest
  • Kangaroos (6th)
    • 13th on Scoring Shot conversion
    • 9th on Q1s, 18th on Q2s, and 1st on Q3s
    • Won more than 50% of Q3s and Q4s and outscored their opponents in Q3s and Q4s
    • Won 0.3 games fewer than their scoring statistics would suggest
  • Melbourne (17th)
    • 13th on Opponent Scoring Shot production
    • 3rd on Opponent Scoring Shot conversion
    • 7th on Q3s
    • Won 50% of Q3s and outscored by their opponents in all four Quarters
    • Won 0.6 games fewer than their scoring statistics would suggest
  •  Port Adelaide (5th)
    • 2nd on Scoring Shot production
    • 11th on Scoring Shot conversion and 12th on Opponent Scoring Shot conversion
    • 1st on Q4s
    • Won more than 50% of Q1s, Q3s and Q4s and outscored their opponents in all four Quarters
    • Won 2.2 games fewer than their scoring statistics would suggest
  • Richmond (8th)
    • 11th on Scoring Shot production
    • 5th on Scoring Shot conversion
    • 14th on Q3s and 3rd on Q4s
    • Won more than 50% of Q1s and Q4s and outscored their opponents in Q1s, Q2s and Q4s
    • Won 0.3 games fewer than their scoring statistics would suggest
  • St Kilda (18th)
    • 14th on Q2s and 12th on Q3s
    • Won less than 50% of all four Quarters and outscored by their opponents in all four Quarters
    • Won 1.4 games more than their scoring statistics would suggest
  • Sydney (1st)
    • 4th on Scoring Shot production
    • 7th on Scoring Shot conversion
    • 4th on Q2s, 4th on Q3s, and 6th on Q4s
    • Won more than 50% of all four Quarters and outscored their opponents in all four Quarters
    • Won 0.7 games fewer than their scoring statistics would suggest
  • West Coast (9th)
    • 2nd on Opponent Scoring Shot production
    • 2nd on Scoring Shot conversion and 15th on Opponent Scoring Shot conversion
    • 5th on Q1s
    • Won more than 50% of Q1s and outscored their opponents in all four Quarters
    • Won 3.0 games fewer than their scoring statistics would suggest
  • Western Bulldogs (14th)
    • 10th on Scoring Shot conversion and 18th on Opponent Scoring Shot conversion
    • 10th on Q1s, 17th on Q2s, and 9th on Q4s
    • Won 50% of Q4s and outscored their opponents in Q4s
    • Won 0.4 games more than their scoring statistics would suggest

As well, here are the rank correlations of team competition ladder positions with their ranking on the key metrics:

  • Own Scoring Shot production: +0.86
  • Opponent Scoring Shot production: +0.85
  • Own Scoring Shot conversion: +0.39
  • Opponent Scoring Shot conversion: +0.42
  • Q1 Performances: +0.89
  • Q2 Performances: +0.68
  • Q3 Performances: +0.57
  • Q4 Performances: +0.80

In summary then, competition ranking this season has been more about generating Scoring Shots and preventing opponents from doing the same, and less about the conversion rates of those Scoring Shots, whether your own or your opponent's. It's also been more about performing well in 1st and 4th Quarters than about performing well in 2nd and 3rd Quarters.



MatterOfStats 2014 : Team Dashboard for Round 21

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It's been a while since we looked at the rank correlations between team competition ladder positions and the various Team Dashboard metrics, so this week I thought it timely to do just that.

These rank correlations with ladder positions are as follows:

  • With Team Scoring Shot Creation: +0.84
  • With Team Scoring Shot Concession (ranked lowest to highest): +0.78
  • With Team Scoring Shot Conversion: +0.11
  • With Team Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion (ranked lowest to highest): +0.52
  • With Team Q1 Performances: +0.83
  • With Team Q2 Performances: +0.71
  • With Team Q3 Performances: +0.58
  • With Team Q4 Performances: +0.78

In summary then, this season has been less about Scoring Shot Conversion than it has been about generating (and preventing) Scoring Shots. Also, Q3 has not been the "Championship Quarter" so far this season, Q1 and Q4 both being far more important.

MatterOfStats 2014 : Team Dashboard for Round 20

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Time this week I think to review the Dashboard statistics for each team most at odds with their competition ladder position:

  • Hawthorn (1st): 7th on Scoring Shots Conceded, 9th on Opponents' Conversion, and 5th in Q4s
  • Sydney (2nd): 11th on Own Conversion and 6th in Q4s
  • Geelong (3rd): 10th on Scoring Shots Conceded, 13th on Own Conversion, 14th in Q3s and 11th in Q4s
  • Fremantle (4th): 8th on Scoring Shots Earned
  • Port Adelaide (5th): (no significant differences)
  • Kangaroos (6th): 17th on Own Conversion, 18th in Q2s, and 1st in Q3s
  • Adelaide (7th): 11th on Scoring Shots Conceded, 13th in Q1s, and 3rd in Q2s and Q3s
  • Essendon (8th): 13th on Scoring Shots Earned, 4th on Scoring Shots Conceded, 14th on Own Conversion, 12th on Opponents' Conversion, and 3rd in Q1s
  • Collingwood (9th): 18th on Own Conversion and 13th in Q4s
  • Gold Coast (10th): 14th in Q1s
  • West Coast (11th): 1st on Scoring Shots Conceded, 2nd on Own Conversion, 15th on Opponents' Conversion, and 7th in Q1s
  • Richmond (12th): 8th on Scoring Shots Conceded, 5th on Own Conversion, 8th in Q1s, 7th in Q2s, and 3rd in Q4s
  • Carlton (13th): 4th on Own Conversion and 9th in Q2s
  • Western Bulldogs (14th): 6th on Own Conversion, 10th in Q1s, and 9th in Q4s
  • Brisbane Lions (15th): 9th on Own Conversion
  • Melbourne (16th): 3rd on Opponents' Conversion and 7th in Q3s
  • GWS (17th): (no significant differences)
  • St Kilda (18th): 12th on Own Conversion, 13th in Q2s and 12th in Q3s

MatterOfStats 2014 : Team Dashboard for Round 19

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I'm not sure whether to attribute it to the unusual nature of the season or to a faltering ability of the MoS Win Production Function to map win entitlements to scoring statistics - who am I kidding, of course I reckon 'tis the season - but half of the teams in the competition have now won or lost 1 or more games more or fewer than that Win Production Function would suggest.

The unlucky ones, the teams that've won fewer games than might be expected, are:

  • West Coast (-2.1 games)
  • Richmond (-1.6 games)
  • Carlton (-1.4 games)
  • Port Adelaide (-1.4 games)
  • Adelaide (-1.2 games)

The lucky ones are:

  • Geelong (+2.7 games)
  • Brisbane Lions (+2.2 games)
  • St Kilda (+1.7 games)
  • Gold Coast (+1.1 games) 

Hawthorn, meantime, are the only team to have registered over 2,000 points so far this season. They're also the only team to have kicked over 300 goals. Geelong, for what it's worth, have scored most behinds (234), though they're only one behind ahead of Port Adelaide and the Kangaroos, and one more ahead of Sydney.

The award for fewest goals conceded belongs to Fremantle (172), whose record is one goal superior to Sydney's. Fewest behinds have been conceded by Essendon (183), ahead of Port Adelaide (187), Hawthorn (190) and the lowly-ranked Western Bulldogs (192).

MatterOfStats2014 : Team Dashboard for Round 18

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Something that struck me while reviewing the latest MoS Team Dashboard tonight was that Melbourne, despite sitting in second-last position on the competition ladder, have conceded fewer goals than the seven teams that sit immediately above them on that ladder, and than two (almost three) more teams that sit inside the Top 8. What's cruelled the Dees' chances has been an inability to score goals themselves: they've recorded 11 fewer goals than any other team in the competition.

It's also interesting to note that the Hawks have scored more than 50 goals more than the Swans, but conceded almost 40 goals more as well, and that Carlton, who sit 13th on the ladder, have scored as many or more goals than seven teams above them on the ladder, but have also conceded more goals than every team above them.

Lastly, a few items from the Quarter-by-Quarter Performance section of the Dashboard:

  • Geelong have the best record of all teams in 1st and 2nd Quarters, but only the 14th- and 9th-best records in 3rd and 4th Quarters.
  • The Roos have the best record in 3rd Quarters, the 3rd-best in 4th Quarters, but the 12th- and 16th-best in 1st and 2nd Quarters.
  • Sydney are ranked 10th on 4th Quarters.
  • Essendon are ranked 3rd on 1st Quarters.

MatterOfStats 2014 : Team Dashboard for Round 17

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Things of note from this week's Team Dashboard:

  • Port Adelaide and Collingwood, though both currently in the Top 8, have both lost four of their last five games. In Port's case that includes the last three in a row.
  • Amongst the teams outside the Top 8 only three - West Coast, Richmond and the Western Bulldogs - recorded victories this weekend, and only Richmond has a sequence of victories extending beyond this weekend.
  • Adelaide rank 4th in terms of Scoring Shots registered per game, despite sitting 10th on the competition ladder, whilst Fremantle rank 7th on this metric despite sitting 2nd on the ladder.
  • The Roos have the second-worst Conversion rate in the competition though they sit 6th on the ladder, and the Cats are 14th on this same measure but 4th on the ladder.
  • Hawthorn, 3rd on the ladder, are 14th in terms of Opponent Scoring Shot conversion, while Melbourne, 3rd-last on the ladder, are 2nd in terms of this metric.
  • Geelong, Gold Coast and St Kilda are the only teams to have won 1 or more games more than they should have, based on their Scoring records and the Win Production Function. Adelaide, Carlton, Port Adelaide, Richmond and West Coast have all won 1 or more games fewer than they should have on the same basis.
  • Relative to current ladder positions, the teams with the most aberrant Quarter performances are:
    • Adelaide - 10th on the ladder but 2nd in Q2s
    • Essendon - 7th on the ladder but 16th in Q4s
    • Geelong - 4th on the ladder but 15th in Q3s
    • Kangaroos - 6th on the ladder but 13th in Q2s
    • Melbourne - 16th on the ladder but 8th in Q3s
    • Richmond - 12th on the ladder but 1st in Q4s
    • Sydney - 1st on the ladder but 8th in Q4s
    • Western Bulldogs - 13th on the ladder but 5th in Q4s

MatterOfStats 2014 : Team Dashboard for Round 15

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Only three of the teams currently sitting in Finals positions have winning streaks that extend beyond a single game, if they've a winning streak at all. Four of the teams in that Top 8 have lost two of their last three games, and another, Geelong, has only a 5 and 4 record in its most-recent 9 games.

Based on the MatterOfStats Win Production Function, three teams have won 1 or more games fewer than would be expected based on their Scoring Statistics:

  • Carlton. who've won 1 game fewer
  • West Coast, who've won 2 games fewer
  • Richmond, who've won 2.5 games fewer

Three teams have, conversely, won 1 on more games more than would be expected:

  • St Kilda, who've won 1.3 games more
  • Brisbane Lions, who've won 2 games more
  • Geelong, who've won 2.1 games more

MatterOfStats 2014 : Team Dashboard for Round 14

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The top 11 teams on the competition ladder now all have percentages greater than 100, while four of the bottom five teams have percentages under 80. Seven teams have won four or fewer of the 13 games they've played, which means that an 8 and 5 season record is currently necessary to place a team in the top 8. As well, the top 3 teams have registered almost 21% of the points scored during the season - almost exactly the same proportion as registered by the bottom 5 teams combined.

All of which suggests that, perhaps, the early-season hopes for a highly-competitive 2014 are not entirely panning out.

MatterOfStats 2014 : Team Dashboard for Round 12

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All seven of the teams now sitting atop the competition ladder collected wins this weekend, and six of them have a winning streak extending back to at least the two most recent games.

More remarkable perhaps is the fact that all of the teams in the top 11 places have percentages greater than 100, yet four of them have not registered more goals than they've registered behinds and two more of them have a barely positive surplus.

Equally remarkable is the fact that Melbourne, currently, has the best record of all the teams on the basis of Opponent Scoring Shot conversion, while their conquerors of the current round, Collingwood, have the worst Own Scoring Shot conversion rate of all 18 teams.

MatterOfStats 2014 : Team Dashboard for Round 11

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By my, crude assessment, the average impact of the bye on teams this season has been a wash, with nine teams winning and nine losing in the week immediately following their bye. Three of the teams that lost currently sit in the Top 8 on the competition ladder, and six sit outside the Top 8. Winning and losing, it seems, has been more about pure ability than the disruptive or beneficial influence of the week off.

Speaking of the competition ladder, according to the Win Production Function used here at MatterOfStats, five teams have won about 1 game or more this season than their Scoring Shot Data would suggest they're entitled to have won:

  • Geelong +1.9 games
  • St Kilda +1.5 games
  • Gold Coast +1.3 games
  • Brisbane Lions +0.8 games
  • Port Adelaide +0.8 games

Five more teams have lost about 1 game or more than they "should" have:

  • West Coast -2.2 games
  • Richmond -1.7 games
  • Hawthorn -1.5 games
  • Fremantle -0.9 games
  • Sydney -0.9 games

The eight remaining teams are all within one-half a game of what they could reasonably expect given their Scoring Shot performances. Again this year then, the Win Production Function seems to be doing a reasonable job of predicting the link between scoring and success.

In winning its final term against Carlton this weekend, the Brisbane Lions ensured that every team has now won every quarter at least once during the season. No team has won any single quarter more than 80% of the time, this result having been achieved by Geelong and Sydney in 1st Quarters, Hawthorn in 2nd Quarters and, remarkably, by Port Adelaide in 1st, 3rd and 4th Quarters.

MatterOfStats 2014 : Team Dashboard for Round 10

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Just a handful of comments this week based on the Quarter-by-Quarter analysis:

  • Brisbane: c'mon, surely you can win a final term sometime this season
  • Port Adelaide: congratulations on your 3rd and 4th term performances; now work on your 1st and, especially, your 2nd term performances
  • Geelong: enough with the long half-time lunches, time to lift your Q3 performances
  • Kangaroos: by the way, 1st halves count too
  • Sydney: 1st quarters do not a season make


MatterOfStats 2014 : Team Dashboard for Round 9

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For this week's Team Dashboard commentary I'm going to focus on the rank correlations between the teams' ranking on various of the metrics on the Team Dashboard and their ranking on the competition ladder (using my approach to ordering teams that have played different number of games, which is to calculate competition points secured per game played).

These rank correlations are as follows:

  • Ladder Position and Scoring Shots Created per Game : +0.88
  • Ladder Position and Scoring Shots Conceded per Game : +0.71
  • Ladder Position and Own Scoring Shots Conversion Rate : +0.09
  • Ladder Position and Opponent Scoring Shots Conversion Rate : +0.36
  • Ladder Position and Q1 Performances : +0.84
  • Ladder Position and Q2 Performances : +0.59
  • Ladder Position and Q3 Performances : +0.59
  • Ladder Position and Q4 Performances : +0.68

In an historical context these correlations are generally quite low, most startlingly so for the correlation between Ladder Position and Own Scoring Shot Conversion, which at +0.09 is about as close to perfectly uncorrelated as you can get.

Six teams in particular are driving this low correlation, three from the bottom half of the Ladder:

  • Western Bulldogs who are 12th on the Ladder and 2nd on the Conversion metric
  • GWS who are 17th on the Ladder and 6th on the metric
  • Brisbane Lions who are 18th on the Ladder and 5th on the metric

... and three from the top half of the Ladder:

  • Geelong who are 3rd on the Ladder and 16th on the metric
  • Kangaroos who are 6th on the Ladder and 17th on the metric
  • Collingwood who are 7th on the Ladder and 18th on the metric

Scoring Shot creation has been the most important activity for teams so far this season (hence the +0.88 correlation with Ladder position). Converting those scoring shots has been of far less importance because winning teams have, on average, generated almost 8 more scoring shots per game than their opponents (27.8 shots versus 19.9). Using these averages we can calculate that a winning team registering 27.8 scoring shots and converting at only 50% will prevail over a losing team registering 19.9 scoring shots and converting at a much higher 77%.

MatterOfStats 2014 : Team Dashboard for Round 8

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The latest Team Dashboard appears below. Please note that I rank teams firstly on the basis of points scored per game played then on percentage, which will mean that I rank some teams differently from the official AFL Ladder.

The only comment I'll make this week is that we're still waiting for the Lions to win a final term, for Geelong to lose a 1st term, and for Port Adelaide to lose a 3rd term.