MatterOfStats 2014 : Team Dashboard for Round 22

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Eight teams' Scoring records this year would suggest that they "should" have won at least one game more or one game fewer than they actually have, according to the Win Production Function I estimated back in 2011. Six of those teams are in the mix for the Final 8 so this apparent under- or over-performance is material.

Four teams have won fewer games than they might reasonably have expected to:

  • West Coast (2.9 games fewer)
  • Adelaide (2.7 games fewer)
  • Port Adelaide (1.8 games fewer)
  • Carlton (1.1 games fewer)

Four other teams have won more games:

  • Geelong (3.3 games more)
  • Brisbane Lions (2.7 games more)
  • St Kilda (1.3 games more)
  • Collingwood (1.1 games more)

The Win Production Function on which these assessments have been made takes as its inputs two difference metrics:

  1. the difference between a team's average Scoring Shot Generation and Scoring Shot Concession
  2. the difference between a team's Scoring Shot Conversion Rate and that of its opponents.

It's the first of those differences that has much more influence on a team's expected number of victories, and the ranking of seven of the eight teams listed on this difference metric proves to be an effective way to highlight the discrepancy between actual and expected victory counts:

  • West Coast are 4th on the difference metric but 10th on the ladder
  • Adelaide are 7th on the metric but 11th on the ladder
  • Port Adelaide are 1st on the metric but 5th on the ladder
  • Geelong are 7th on the metric but 3rd on the ladder
  • Brisbane Lions are a distant 16th on this metric but 15th on the ladder
  • St Kilda are an also distant 18th on this metric but have nowhere lower to go than 18th on the ladder
  • Collingwood are 11th on the metric but 9th on the ladder

Carlton's discrepancy between actual and expected victories is better highlighted by its performance on the second difference metric. It's ranked 5th on this metric but 13th on the ladder.