By my, crude assessment, the average impact of the bye on teams this season has been a wash, with nine teams winning and nine losing in the week immediately following their bye. Three of the teams that lost currently sit in the Top 8 on the competition ladder, and six sit outside the Top 8. Winning and losing, it seems, has been more about pure ability than the disruptive or beneficial influence of the week off.
Speaking of the competition ladder, according to the Win Production Function used here at MatterOfStats, five teams have won about 1 game or more this season than their Scoring Shot Data would suggest they're entitled to have won:
- Geelong +1.9 games
- St Kilda +1.5 games
- Gold Coast +1.3 games
- Brisbane Lions +0.8 games
- Port Adelaide +0.8 games
Five more teams have lost about 1 game or more than they "should" have:
- West Coast -2.2 games
- Richmond -1.7 games
- Hawthorn -1.5 games
- Fremantle -0.9 games
- Sydney -0.9 games
The eight remaining teams are all within one-half a game of what they could reasonably expect given their Scoring Shot performances. Again this year then, the Win Production Function seems to be doing a reasonable job of predicting the link between scoring and success.
In winning its final term against Carlton this weekend, the Brisbane Lions ensured that every team has now won every quarter at least once during the season. No team has won any single quarter more than 80% of the time, this result having been achieved by Geelong and Sydney in 1st Quarters, Hawthorn in 2nd Quarters and, remarkably, by Port Adelaide in 1st, 3rd and 4th Quarters.