MatterOfStats 2025 : Team Dashboard for Round 18
/Below is the latest Ranking on Dashboard Metrics table, which shows the sizeable gap between the top 9 and bottom 9 teams (note that I order teams based firstly on the percentage of available competition points they have accrued and then on percentage).
The metrics currently most rank correlated with ladder position are:
Opponent Points per Game: +0.93
Opponent Goals per Game: +0.91
MoS Win Production Function: +0.9
Opponent Scoring Shots per Game: +0.9
Percent of Quarters Won: +0.88
Q1 Performances: +0.84
Own Points per Game: +0.82
Own Scoring Shots per Game: +0.81
Own Goals per Game: +0.8
Q3 Performances: +0.79
Those least rank correlated with ladder position are:
Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion: +0.35
Own Scoring Shot Conversion: +0.45
Next, here’s the latest Team Dashboard, which shows, among other things, that:
Adelaide have won 88% of Q2s but only 59% of Q3s.
Carlton have won 65% of Q1s but only 21% of Q3s.
Essendon have won 63% of Q2s but only 25% of Q1s.
Geelong have won 76% of Q4s but only 44% of Q2s.
Sydney have won 65% of Q4s but only 29% of Q2s.
Western Bulldogs have won 74% of Q4s but only 41% of Q1s.
Adelaide, Collingwood, Gold Coast, and Western Bulldogs are now the only teams to have outscored their opponents in all four quarters
North Melbourne, Richmond, St Kilda, and West Coast are the only teams to have been outscored by their opponents in all four quarters
Carlton (Q1), Collingwood (Q3), Fremantle (Q3), Geelong (Q4), and GWS (Q4) all have particularly strong records in the quarters noted relative to their performances in the three other quarters.
Brisbane Lions, Collingwood Gold Coast, and Hawthorn are now the only teams to have generated, on average, more scoring shots than their opponents in every quarter.
Essendon, North Melbourne, Richmond, St Kilda, and West Coast remain the only teams to have generated, on average, fewer scoring shots than their opponents in every quarter.
Team Conversion rates by quarter remain highly variable for a few teams. For example, the Lions have converted at 62% in Q3s but only 45% in Q4s.
Other teams with a large range of conversion rates are:
Hawthorn: 62% Q2 and 46% Q1
St Kilda: 62% Q1 and 46% Q2
A number of teams also have a large range of opponent conversion rates across quarters:
Adelaide: 55% Q3 and 41% Q4
Fremantle: 60% Q2, and 42% Q3
Geelong: 61% Q3 and 47% Q4
Melbourne: 65% Q4 and 50% Q1
Carlton have scored 33% of their points in Q1s
Collingwood have conceded 18% of the total points they have in Q3s, Fremantle 19% in Q3s, and Geelong 18% in Q4s
Geelong have also conceded 31% of the total points they have in Q3s