Perhaps one of the most interesting aspects of the Finals simulations this season is what chances they give the teams in 6th through 10th of a) making, and b) winning the Grand Final.

MoSHBODS gives the following estimates:

One or more teams from the Wildcard Finals makes the Grand Final: 10%
One of the teams from the Wildcard Finals wins the Grand Final: 6%

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

We now have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with rough fair prices shown in brackets):

Fremantle ($3.55)
Sydney ($4.50)
Brisbane Lions ($5.50)
Hawthorn ($6.40)
Geelong ($14)
Adelaide ($45)
Melbourne ($50)
Carlton ($55)
Collingwood ($90)
Western Bulldogs ($150)

FINALS DETAILS

Next let’s take a look at what the simulations are suggesting about the details of the Finals series - that is, who loses to whom in what week and how often?