2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 5

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 5 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Hawthorn and Sydney: 99% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 70-80% chances of Top 4; roughly 25-30% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Western Bulldogs, Fremantle, and Brisbane Lions: 96-98% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 50-60% chances of Top 4; roughly 10-15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Geelong and Gold Coast: about 85-90% chances of being finalists; roughly 25-30% chances of Top 4; roughly 3% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Adelaide: about 75% chances of being finalists; about 10% chances of Top 4; about 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Collingwood and GWS: about 60-65% chances of being finalists; about 5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. St Kilda and Melbourne: about 40-45% chances of being finalists; about 2-3% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. North Melbourne and Port Adelaide: about 20-25% chances of being finalists; about 1% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Carlton, West Coast, and Essendon: about 5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. Richmond: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below.

We have then:

  • 12 teams with about or better than 2-in-5 chances of finishing Top 10

  • Seven teams with about or better than a 1-in-4 chance of finishing Top 4

  • Five teams with about or better than 1-in-10 chances of finishing as the Minor Premier

A few interesting things to note from this table:

  • How much Melbourne reduced their estimated chances of playing Finals this week

  • How much Gold Coast reduced their estimated chances of a Top 4 or Top 6 finish this week

  • How much Hawthorn and Sydney increased their estimated chances of finishing Top 4 this week

WINS AND LADDER FINISHES

In the table below we look at the average ladder finish for each team for a given number of home and away wins.

We see that:

  • The average ladder finish still first drops below 10th for most teams for 11.5 wins

  • The average ladder finish now first drops below 6th for most teams for 15 wins

  • The average ladder finish still first drops below 4th most teams for for 16.5 wins

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 2nd most teams for for 18.5 wins

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with rough fair prices shown in brackets):

  • Hawthorn ($4.75)

  • Sydney ($5.75)

  • Western Bulldogs ($6.25)

  • Brisbane Lions ($7)

  • Fremantle ($9.25)

  • Geelong ($16.50)

  • Gold Coast ($20)

  • Adelaide ($31)

  • Collingwood ($60)

  • GWS ($90)

  • St Kilda ($150)

  • Melbourne ($175)

  • Port Adelaide ($850)

  • North Melbourne ($900)

  • Carlton ($1,400)

  • Essendon ($6,000)

  • West Coast ($30,000)

  • Richmond ($250,000)

COMBINATIONS IN TOP X TEAMS

In the latest 1,000,000 simulation replicates there were:

  • 999,984 different Top 18s

  • 946,759 different Top 10s (and 4,052 different sets of 10 teams in them)

  • 11,967 different Top 4s (and 1,080 different sets of 4 teams in them)

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

As the final table for this week, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 24 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are all higher than last week’s, and are:

  • MINOR PREMIER: There’s about a 1-in-5 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (up to 21% from 19%)

  • DOUBLE CHANCE: There’s about a 3-in-10 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (down to 31% from 32%)

  • AVOID WILDCARD ROUND: There’s about a 1-in-3 chance that 6th will be decided on percentages (down to 32% from 33%)

  • MAKE FINALS: There’s about a 1-in-3 chance that 10th will be decided on percentages (up to 33% from 32%)