2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 6

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 6 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Hawthorn and Sydney: 99% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 75-80% chances of Top 4; roughly 25-30% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Geelong and Fremantle: roughly 97% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 60% chances of Top 4; roughly 10-15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Brisbane Lions and Western Bulldogs: about 90-95% chances of being finalists; roughly 35-40% chances of Top 4; roughly 5% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Gold Coast: about 80% chances of being finalists; about 20-25% chances of Top 4; about 2% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Adelaide: about 75% chances of being finalists; about 10% chances of Top 4; about 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Collingwood. Melbourne, and GWS: about 50-60% chances of being finalists; about 5-7% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. St Kilda: about 40% chances of being finalists; about 2% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. North Melbourne and Port Adelaide: about 20-30% chances of being finalists; about 1% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. Carlton, West Coast, and Essendon: about 3-6% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  10. Richmond: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below.

We have then:

  • 12 teams with about or better than 2-in-5 chances of finishing Top 10

  • Seven teams with about or better than a 2-in-9 chance of finishing Top 4

  • Six teams with about or better than 1-in-16 chances of finishing as the Minor Premier

A few interesting things to note from this table:

  • How much Western Bulldogs reduced and Geelong increased their estimated chances of a Top 4 or Top 6 finish this week

WINS AND LADDER FINISHES

In the table below we look at the average ladder finish for each team for a given number of home and away wins.

We see that:

  • The average ladder finish still first drops below 10th for most teams for 11.5 wins

  • The average ladder finish now first drops below 6th for most teams for 14.5 wins

  • The average ladder finish still first drops below 4th most teams for for 16.5 wins

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 2nd most teams for for 18.5 wins

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with rough fair prices shown in brackets):

  • Hawthorn ($5.25)

  • Sydney ($6)

  • Geelong ($6.75)

  • Fremantle ($8)

  • Brisbane Lions ($8)

  • Western Bulldogs ($12)

  • Gold Coast ($25)

  • Adelaide ($30)

  • Collingwood ($60)

  • GWS ($70)

  • Melbourne ($105)

  • St Kilda ($125)

  • North Melbourne ($450)

  • Port Adelaide ($500)

  • Carlton ($1,150)

  • Essendon ($5,000)

  • West Coast ($45,000)

COMBINATIONS IN TOP X TEAMS

In the latest 1,000,000 simulation replicates there were:

  • 999,959 different Top 18s

  • 952,654 different Top 10s (and 3,743 different sets of 10 teams in them)

  • 12,780 different Top 4s (and 1,074 different sets of 4 teams in them)

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

As the final table for this week, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 24 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are mostly higher than last week’s, and are:

  • MINOR PREMIER: There’s about a 1-in-5 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (steady at 21%)

  • DOUBLE CHANCE: There’s about a 1-in-3 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (up to 33% from 31%)

  • AVOID WILDCARD ROUND: There’s about a 1-in-3 chance that 6th will be decided on percentages (up to 34% from 32%)

  • MAKE FINALS: There’s about a 7-in-20 chance that 10th will be decided on percentages (up to 35% from 33%)