2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 4
/NB: An earlier version of the blog was published with incorrect data … I blame Claude)
SUMMARY
This year’s post Round 4 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:
(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)
Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn, and Sydney: 95% or higher chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 60-70% chances of Top 4; roughly 15-30% chances of being Minor Premier
Brisbane Lions, Fremantle, and Gold Coast: 90-95% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 40-50% chances of Top 4; roughly 10% chances of being Minor Premier
Geelong: about 80% chances of being finalists; roughly 25% chances of Top 4; roughly 3% chances of being Minor Premier
Adelaide, Melbourne, and Collingwood, : about 60-70% chances of being finalists; about 10% chances of Top 4; about 1% chances of being Minor Premier
GWS: about 50% chances of being finalists; about 5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier
St Kilda, North Melbourne, and Port Adelaide: about 25-35% chances of being finalists; about 1-2% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier
Carlton and West Coast: about 6-8% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier
Essendon and Richmond: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier
LADDER FINISHES
The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below.
We have then:
11 teams with about or better than 1-in-2 chances of finishing Top 10
Seven teams with about or better than a 1-in-4 chance of finishing Top 4
Five teams with about or better than 1-in-9 chances of finishing as the Minor Premier
One thing to notice from this table is that the Top 8 teams are all expected to win 60% or more of their remaining home and away games, while the Bottom 10 are all at 52% or lower.
WINS AND LADDER FINISHES
In the table below we look at the average ladder finish for each team for a given number of home and away wins.
What’s interesting is how similar are the average fates of all teams for any particular number of wins.
As well, we see that:
The average ladder finish first drops below 10th for most teams for 11.5 wins
The average ladder finish first drops below 6th for most teams for 14.5 wins
The average ladder finish first drops below 4th most teams for for 16.5 wins
The average ladder finish first drops below 2nd most teams for for 18.5 wins
FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS
Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:
Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with rough fair prices shown in brackets):
Western Bulldogs ($5.50)
Hawthorn ($5.75)
Brisbane Lions ($6.75)
Sydney ($7.50)
Fremantle ($8.25)
Gold Coast ($15)
Geelong ($20)
Adelaide ($30)
Melbourne ($50)
Collingwood ($60)
GWS ($120)
St Kilda ($175)
Port Adelaide ($500)
North Melbourne ($700)
Carlton ($1,300)
West Coast ($10,500)
Essendon ($20,500)
Richmond ($175,000)
COMBINATIONS IN TOP X TEAMS
In the latest 1,000,000 simulation replicates there were:
999,995 different Top 18s
977,261 different Top 10s (and 4,784 different sets of 10 teams in them)
14,958 different Top 4s (and 1,248 different sets of 4 teams in them)
LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE
As the final table for this week, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 24 based on percentage.
So, our current estimates are all higher than last week’s, and are:
MINOR PREMIER: There’s about a 1-in-5 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (up to 19% from 16%)
DOUBLE CHANCE: There’s about a 1-in-3 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (up to 32% from 28%)
AVOID WILDCARD ROUND: There’s about a 1-in-3 chance that 6th will be decided on percentages (up to 33% from 31%)
MAKE FINALS: There’s about a 1-in-3 chance that 10th will be decided on percentages (steady at 32%)
