2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 3

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 3 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Western Bulldogs, Gold Coast, and Hawthorn: about 90-95% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 50-65% chances of Top 4; roughly 15-25% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Fremantle and Brisbane Lions: about 85-90% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 40-45% chances of Top 4; roughly 10% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Geelong, Sydney, Collingwood, and Adelaide: about 75-80% chances of being finalists; roughly 20-30% chances of Top 4; roughly 5% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. GWS: about 60% chances of being finalists; about 10% chances of Top 4; about 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Melbourne and St Kilda: about 40-45% chances of being finalists; about 5% chances of Top 4; about 0.5-<1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. West Coast, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, and Carlton: about 15-25% chances of being finalists; about 1-2% chances of Top 4; about <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Richmond and Essendon: about 5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below.

We have then:

  • 12 teams with about or better than 2-in-5 chances of finishing Top 10

  • Nine teams with about or better than a 1-in-5 chance of finishing Top 4

  • Five teams with about or better than 1-in-10 chances of finishing as the Minor Premier.

No team yet has a less than 1-in-25 chance of playing Finals (even though they’re are 1-in-3 chance for the Spoon).

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with rough fair prices shown in brackets):

  • Western Bulldogs ($4.55)

  • Hawthorn ($6)

  • Gold Coast ($7.60)

  • Fremantle ($9.05)

  • Brisbane Lions ($10)

  • Geelong ($16)

  • Adelaide ($16.50)

  • Sydney ($18.50)

  • Collingwood ($25)

  • GWS ($85)

  • Melbourne ($90)

  • St Kilda ($110)

  • Carlton ($400)

  • Port Adelaide ($450)

  • North Melbourne ($850)

  • West Coast ($900)

  • Essendon ($7,000)

  • Richmond ($11,000)

COMBINATIONS IN TOP X TEAMS

In the latest 1,000,000 simulation replicates there were:

  • 1,000,000 different Top 18s

  • 995,921 different Top 10s (and 10,789 different sets of 10 teams in them)

  • 23,981 different Top 4s (and 1,906 different sets of 4 teams in them)

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

As the final table for this week, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 24 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are all lower than last week’s, and are:

  • MINOR PREMIER: There’s about a 1-in-6 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (down to 16% from 20%)

  • DOUBLE CHANCE: There’s about a 2-in-7 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (down to 28% from 33%)

  • AVOID WILDCARD ROUND: There’s about a 3-in-10 chance that 6th will be decided on percentages (down to 31% from 36%)

  • MAKE FINALS: There’s about a 1-in-3 chance that 10th will be decided on percentages (down to 32% from 35%)