AFLW 2025 - Round 2

/

Round 2 of the AFLW looks a little less competitive than Round 1, with only two of the early markets suggesting that a final game margin will be under about two goals, six games expected to finish with a margin in the two to three goal range, one game expected to finish with a margin just over three goals, and the final remaining game expected to finish with a margin of about five-and-a-half goals.

Below are WoSHBODS’ thoughts about the nine games of the round, which includes just a single underdog win (GWS), but a distribution of expected margins generally nearer zero:

  • Under 2 goals: 5 games

  • From 2 to under 4 goals: 2 games

  • Over 4 goals: 2 games

The TAB bookmaker’s average expected victory margin is 15.4 points, while WoSHBODS’ is 13.6 points.

Read More

AFLW 2025 - Simulations After Round 1

/

This year’s post Round 1 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

Also, note that these are early-season estimates and are therefore likely to have large standard errors associated with them. I expect them to change significantly over the next few weeks.

  1. North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; around 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 50% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Hawthorn, Melbourne, and Brisbane: 80-85% chance of being finalists; around 45-60% chances of Top 4; roughly 5-15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. St Kilda, Fremantle, Geelong, and Adelaide: 60-70% chances of being finalists; around 25-30% chances of Top 4; roughly 1-5% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Sydney and Essendon: 45-50% chances of being finalists; around 15% chances of Top 4; roughly 1-2% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Port Adelaide, Carlton, and Richmond: around 20-30% chance of being finalists; 5% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. West Coast, GWS, Gold Coast, and Western Bulldogs: around 10% chance of being finalists; around 1-2% chances of Top 4; roughly <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Collingwood: around 1% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

Read More

AFLW 2025 - Round 1 - Unders/Overs

/

UPDATE 12:35PM SUNDAY

After waiting - fruitlessly - for Sportsbet to frame Totals markets for today’s games, WoSHBODS has taken:

  • Brisbane v Hawthorn: 3.8% u90.5 $1.87

  • St Kilda v Adelaide: 2.6% u80.5 $1.87

A third, overs, bet on the Port Adelaide v Fremantle game has been passed due to forecast rain.

UPDATE 12:30PM SATURDAY

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • GWS v Essendon: 2.4% u81.5 $1.85

  • Western Bulldogs v Melbourne: 0.3% u75.5 $1.87

UPDATE 1PM FRIDAY

Both bookmakers are setting the Total at 80.5 tonight. WoSHBODS has no interest.

UPDATE 4:30PM THURSDAY

The TAB has now posted Totals markets for both of tonight’s games, and WoSHBODS, as predicted has preferred Sportsbet, but for minimal amounts. It has:

  • Carlton v Collingwood: 0.1% u75.5 $1.85

  • West Coast v Gold Coast: 0.1% u77.5 $1.85

UPDATE 4PM THURSDAY

At this point, the TAB has not posted any Totals markets, and Sportsbet has posted just the two for tonight’s games. It’s likely WoSHBODS will be making very small unders wagers on both games, but I’ll be waiting until closer to game time to commit, hoping that the TAB might have something to offer as well.

AFLW 2025 - Round 1

/

Round 1 of the AFLW looks fairly competitive, with only two of the early markets suggesting that a game margin will exceed about two goals, and in neither of those is it expected to exceed three-and-a-half goals.

Here are WoSHBODS’ thoughts about the nine games of the round, which include forecast wins by three away teams and by two underdogs (Richmond by 9 points, and Fremantle, narrowly)

The distribution of WoSHBODS expected margins is as follows:

  • Under 2 goals: 6 games

  • From 2 to under 4 goals: 3 games

  • Over 4 goals: 0 games

Read More

AFLW 2025 - Simulations Before Round 1

/

This year’s pre Round 1 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

Also, note that these are pre-season estimates and are therefore likely to have large standard errors associated with them. I expect them to change significantly over the next few weeks.

  1. North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; around 80% chances of Top 4; roughly 40% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Brisbane, Adelaide, and Hawthorn: 75-85% chance of being finalists; around 45-55% chances of Top 4; roughly 10-15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Melbourne and Geelong: 60-70% chances of being finalists; around 25-35% chances of Top 4; roughly 5% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Fremantle, Port Adelaide, and Richmond: around 45-50% chance of being finalists; 15-20% chances of Top 4; 2-3% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Essendon, St Kilda, Sydney, and GWS: around 25-35% chance of being finalists; around 5-10% chances of Top 4; roughly <1-1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Western Bulldogs, Gold Coast, West Coast, Carlton, and Collingwood: around 10-15% chance of being finalists; around 1-4% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

Read More

AFLW 2024 - Round 14 Results - A Tiny Bit of Icing

/

WoSHBODS tipped the winner of the Grand Final, and recorded a Margin MAE of just under 11.5 points per game and a Totals MAE of 28.2 points per game.

That took its season-long figures to 77.5 from 108 (72%) for accuracy, 19.1 for Margin MAE, and 17.5 for Totals MAE, which is roughly as good as the bookmakers on accuracy, better than them on Margin MAE, and a little worse on Total MAE (and on LPS)..

Read More

AFLW 2024 - Round 13 Results - A Good and Proper Profit

/

WoSHBODS tipped both winners in Week 3 of the Finals, although you could argue that it tipped only one if you took more notice of its probability estimates than its margin forecasts.

It also recorded a Margin MAE of 17.2 points per game and a Totals MAE of 17.4 points per game.

Those numbers took its season-long figures to 76.5 from 107 (72%) for accuracy, 19.2 for Margin MAE, and 17.4 for Totals MAE.

Read More

AFLW 2024 - Simulations After Round 12

/

In this blog we’ll update our simulations for what we saw in Week 2 of the Finals and project the outcomes for the remainder of the Finals series.

The methodology we’ll use is the same one that I’ve used for the men’s competition, which involves, in each replicate, simulating the next upcoming round using the teams’ current Offensive and Defensive Ratings and Venue Performance Values, updating those Ratings and Values as we would if the results were actual results, and then do the same for each subsequent home-and-away round and each week of the Finals.

Each replicate is, therefore, a simulated end to the current season, and we’ll do this for 10,000 replicates.

The results this week are as shown below.

Read More

AFLW 2024 - Round 12 Results - The Smallest Possible Profit

/

WoSHBODS tipped only one of the two winners in Week 2 of the Finals, although it had every reason to feel that it had both in the proverbial bag at three-quarter time in the Hawks v Power game.

It also recorded a Margin MAE of 20.9 points per game and a Totals MAE of 9.8 points per game.

Those numbers took its season-long figures to 74.5 from 105 (71%) for accuracy, 19.2 for Margin MAE, and 17.4 for Totals MAE.

Read More

AFLW 2024 - Simulations After Round 11

/

In this blog we’ll update our simulations for what we saw in Week 1 of the Finals and project the outcomes for the remainder of the Finals series.

The methodology we’ll use is the same one that I’ve used for the men’s competition, which involves, in each replicate, simulating the next upcoming round using the teams’ current Offensive and Defensive Ratings and Venue Performance Values, updating those Ratings and Values as we would if the results were actual results, and then do the same for each subsequent home-and-away round and each week of the Finals.

Each replicate is, therefore, a simulated end to the current season, and we’ll do this for 10,000 replicates.

The results this week are as shown below.

Read More

AFLW 2024 - Simulations After Round 10

/

In this blog we’ll update our simulations for what we saw in Round 10 and project the outcomes for the Finals series.

The methodology we’ll use is the same one that I’ve used for the men’s competition, which involves, in each replicate, simulating the next upcoming round using the teams’ current Offensive and Defensive Ratings and Venue Performance Values, updating those Ratings and Values as we would if the results were actual results, and then do the same for each subsequent home-and-away round and each week of the Finals.

Each replicate is, therefore, a simulated end to the current season, and we’ll do this for 10,000 replicates.

Read More