AFLW 2026 - Simulations After Round 7

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This year’s post Round 7 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

  1. North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; virtually certain of Top 4; roughly 90% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; around 97% chances of Top 4; roughly 8% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Geelong: roughly 99% chances of being finalists; around 80% chances of Top 4; 2% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Carlton: roughly 95% chances of being finalists; around 55-60% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Sydney: roughly 95% chances of being finalists; around 35% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Western Bulldogs: roughly 85% chances of being finalists; around 15% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Gold Coast and Hawthorn: roughly 60-70% chances of being finalists; around 5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Fremantle: around 50% chance of being finalists; around 3% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. Brisbane: around 25% chance of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  10. Adelaide, Richmond, Port Adelaide, and West Coast: around 5-10% chance of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  11. Collingwood, GWS, Essendon, and St Kilda: <0.5% chance of being finalists; <0.5%% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below.

We have 10 teams with about or better than a 1-in-3 chance of finishing Top 8, and seven with about or better than a 1-in-5 chance of finishing Top 4.

WINS AND LADDER FINISHES

In the table below we look at the average ladder finish for each team for a given number of home and away wins.

We see that:

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 8th for most teams for 7 wins

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 4th for most teams for for 9 wins

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 2nd for most teams for 10.5 wins

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with fair prices shown in brackets):

  • North Melbourne (about $1.70)

  • Melbourne (about $5.10)

  • Carlton (about $11)

  • Geelong (about $19)

  • Sydney (about $70)

  • Western Bulldogs (about $70)

  • Hawthorn (about $110)

  • Brisbane (about $125)

  • Fremantle (about $225)

  • Gold Coast (about $325)

  • Adelaide (about $525)

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

The following plot shows how likely it is that any two consecutive ladder positions will be decided based on percentages.

So, our new estimates are:

  • MINOR PREMIER: There’s about a 1-in-2 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (up to 51% from 36%)

  • DOUBLE CHANCE: There’s about a 2-in-5 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (down to 41% from 45%)

  • MAKE FINALS: There’s about a 9-in-17 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages (down to 53% from 54%)