WoSHBODS tipped 7 from 9 winners this week, as did the bookmakers.

Its Margin MAE was 17.9 points per game, compared to 18 and 17.9 for the two bookmakers, and its Total MAE was 21.9 points per game, compared to 20.2 and 20.3 for the two bookmakers.

Lastly, WoSHBODS’ LPS of +1.9 bits compares to +2.2 bits for the two bookmakers.

Altogether a much better advertisement for the ability of statistical modelling (or should that be modellers?)

WAGERS

Only the Line Fund made money this week, but it did so to an extent sufficient to result in green ink for the Combined Portfolio. It rose by just over 1c on the round leaving it now down by just over 8c on the season, that from a -9% ROI on a 0.91 turn.

Whether end-of-season profitability is a reasonable goal is hard to tell at this point, but at least this week reversed the trend.

TEAM DASHBOARD

Below is a table recording how the teams rank on various Team Dashboard metrics.

The metrics most rank correlated with ladder position are:

MoS Win Production Function: +0.96
Own Goals per Game: +0.95
Own Points per Game: +0.94
Percentage of Quarters Won: +0.93
Own Scoring Shots per Game: +0.87
Opponent Goals per Game: +0.82
Opponent Points per Game: +0.81
Opponent Scoring Shots per Game: +0.73
Own Scoring Shot Conversion: +0.71
Q4 Performances: +0.70

The metric least rank correlated with ladder position is:

Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion: +0.45

Next come the details of the Team Dashboard in two parts.

In the top part we can see that the Top 9 teams represent 75% of all wins.

We can also see that Geelong has scored an average of more than 10 goals a game while North Melbourne has scored 9 but conceded only about 3-and-a-half. St Kilda has scored about 3-and-a-half per game and conceded almost 10.

In the bottom half we see that:

North Melbourne has won 21 of 28 quarters this season. Melbourne is next with 19.
Over the same time period, Collingwood and Essendon have won only 7 quarters, and St Kilda just 8.
The teams that have outscored their opponents, on average, in every quarter are Carlton, North Melbourne, and Melbourne, Fremantle have done it for Q1 to Q3, but fall away dramatically to record a percentage of just 50 in final terms. They have scored only 13% of their total in Q4s and converted at only 38%
Those that have been outscored by their opponents, on average, in every quarter are Essendon, and St Kilda
Collingwood have yet to win a Q3
Western Bulldogs have scored only 14% of their points in Q3s as have Hawthorn in Q2s
Hawthorn have conceded only 11% of their points in Q3s, Carlton 13% in Q1s, Port Adelaide 14% in Q2s, and West Coast 15% in Q3s
Collingwood have conceded 41% of their points in Q3s, Western Bulldogs 38% in Q3s, Hawthorn 37% in Q1s, and Carlton 37% in Q2s