AFLW 2026 - Simulations After Round 13

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The results of this year’s post Round 13 simulations appear below.

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal.

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with fair prices shown in brackets):

  • North Melbourne (about $1.75)

  • Melbourne (about $5.90)

  • Geelong (about $7)

  • Hawthorn (about $20)

  • Carlton (about $25)

  • Sydney (about $220)

In the plot below we record the team-versus-team results in the Finals simulations (now with the correct logic for the teams that meet in the semi-finals)

We can see, for example, that Melbourne go out about 40% of the time in a Preliminary Final and about equally often at the hands of Carlton and Hawthorn. Also, if North Melbourne win the Flag it’s most often via a victory over Melbourne.

Lastly, let’s look at the Grand Final simulation results alone.

We can see that the most likely Grand Final outcome is a North Melbourne win over Melbourne (34%), followed by a North Melbourne win over Hawthorn or a Melbourne win over North Melbourne (both 13%) or a North Melbourne win over Carlton (12%).

It’s also possible to calculate the conditional probability that a team wins the Grand Final given that they make it, and these numbers are:

  • North Melbourne: 75% (appearing in 78% of Grand Finals)

  • Geelong: 71% (appearing in 20% of Grand Finals)

  • Sydney: 42% (appearing in 1% of Grand Finals)

  • Melbourne: 29% (appearing in 59% of Grand Finals)

  • Hawthorn: 24% (appearing in 21% of Grand Finals)

  • Carlton: 21% (appearing in 19% of Grand Finals)