AFLW 2026 - Round 13 Results - Back on Dry Land
/WoSHBODS tipped 3 from 4 winners this week and the bookmakers only 2, and so is now 4 tips behind them both across the whole season.
Its Margin MAE was 13.8 points per game, compared to 16 and 15.9 for the two bookmakers, and its Total MAE was 14.6 points per game, compared to 17 for the two bookmakers.
WoSHBODS’ season-long Margin MAE is now 18.9 points per game, compared to 18.4 for the two bookmakers.
Lastly, WoSHBODS’ LPS of +0.8 bits compares to +0.5 bits for the two bookmakers.
Across the season WoSHBODS is on +27.5 bits to +34 and +33.9 for the two bookmakers.
WAGERS
All three Funds made money this week and, collectively, lifted the value of the Combined Portfolio rose by 2.1c leaving it now up by 0.5c on the season, that from a +0.3% ROI on a 1.62 turn. It’s the first time the Combined Portfolio has been in profit since Round 5.
If you’d told me that 7 weeks ago, I’d not have believed you.
Looking firstly at the source of profit and loss in the head-to-head and line markets, we see from the table at right that:
Head-to-Head losses have been smaller for favourites than for losses, and for home teams than away teams
Line profits have been largest for home team underdogs but also pleasingly positive for home team favourites. Away team favourites have barely washed their face, and away team underdogs have been expensive
And now looking instead at Totals betting we see that the only source of profit has been overs betting where the estimated overlay was between 6 and 12 points, but that only represents 5 of the 85 wagers, and 3 of the 42 collects.
It’s been enough, however, to make Overs betting profitable overall with a 30% on 9 collects from 17 wagers.
Unders wagering has been nearest to profitable when the estimated overlay has been under a goal, which has been the case 37 times this season for 20 collects and a -2% ROI.
