WoSHBODS is forecasting one home team and one away team win this week, differing in its choice of winner compared to the bookmakers only in the second game of the round where it has Hawthorn narrowly defeating Carlton.

The average absolute difference between WoSHBODS’ and the bookmaker’s margin forecasts is 10.7 points per game, and the range is from 8.4 points for the Blues v Hawks game to 13 points for the Cats v Swans game.

The distribution of WoSHBODS expected margins is as follows:

Under 2 goals: 1 game
From 2 to under 4 goals: 0 game
Over 4 goals: 1 game

The bookmakers would have both games in the first category.

The average expected absolute margin is 13.7 points per game according to WoSHBODS, and 10.5 points per game according to the bookmaker.

WAGERS

The table below documents the round’s wagers and records more action than I would have expected for a two-game semi-final round.

Overall, Investors have a head-to-head and line market interest in both games, on the favourite in the first game, and the underdog in the second.

The head-to-head bets total just over 5% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and the line bets just on 5% of the Line Fund.

In total, then, about 4.5% of the entire Combined Portfolio is at risk. A best possible set of results would lift the price of the Combined Portfolio by 4c.