This year, as advised in this earlier blog, MoS will be tracking only (!) three Rating Systems, and will no longer be calculating Massey, Colley or ODM Ratings.
Two of the Systems that will be tracked are MARS and ChiPS, and their opinions of the Round 1 results appear in the table below. (That earlier blog provides information about how these two Team Rating Systems work, as well as information about MoSSBODS.)
Read MoreIt's a low bar, I acknowledge, but when you completely revamp your major predictive algorithms during the off-season, throwing away the predictive life-force granted you by access to bookmaker prices, I think it's reasonable to commence the new season merely hoping for an absence of profound regret.
Read MoreAlmost immediately after I'd posted Overs/Unders Update 1 this afternoon, the TAB framed Overs/Unders markets for the remaining eight games of the round, many of them with Totals that have subsequently appealed to the new Overs/Unders Fund.
Read MoreFor the time being, I'm going to do these Overs/Unders updates as separate blog posts since that will ensure e-mail subscribers receive overnight notification of them. I might change this practice if the updates become too frequent.
In this post I've only one Overs/Unders market to talk about, and that's for Thursday's Richmond v Carlton game, which opened on the TAB as $1.90 Over/$1.90 Under 175.5. With our forecasted total for this game being 161 points, we've taken the Unders with some alacrity. Our bet is 2% of the Fund, as will be all wagers in this market this season.
The weight of money so far seems to have been with us, the Total for this market having as of 4:30pm Wednesday been dropped to 172.5 points. Regrettably, there's only a 20% chance of rain. (I used to complain about cheering for a result and not a team, and now I'm reduced to BOM-watching and pondering the wisdom of pluvius insurance ...)
We're starting things a little earlier for Round 1 of this year, partly because the new Fund models don't require me to wait for complete bookmaker data to use as inputs, but mostly because I want to give myself time to adapt to the new rhythms of the season given the non-trivial changes in my approach.
Read MoreThis year MoS will calculate Team Ratings using three different Systems, all of them ELO-based
Read MoreI mentioned in the previous blog here on Wagers & Tips that the MoSSBODS Team Rating System (V2.0) will be used to power a Head-to-Head, a Margin and a Probability forecaster in 2016.
Read MoreDespite what the completely fictional critics, made up only for the purposes of this lead-in paragraph were saying, MatterOfStats will be returning for the 2016 AFL season.
Read MoreThis year, MAFL's/MoS' 10th, was a record year in a number of ways, with the most traffic to the site, the most comments (though still far fewer than I'd like), the best tipping and prediction relative to the bookmakers, but also the largest wagering loss.
Read MoreSo, which of the three-peating Hawks was the best of the trio at season's end?
Read MoreHawthorn were Rated the Number 1 team by MARS at the start of the season and at the end of every round, and by ChiPS at the start of the season and end of every round too except Round 2 when the Swans briefly snatched that honour. So, it seems fitting that the Hawks took out the 2015 AFL Grand Final in convincing style.
Read MoreIt's a source of continuing frustration to me that determining "Home Ground" status remains problematic from time-to-time, especially during the Finals. Resolving this for season 2016 is very high up on my to-do list.
Read MoreBoth Preliminary Finals went very much to script as far as ChiPS was concerned, the result being only very small changes in the Ratings of the four teams involved.
Read MoreAnd so we wind up with the team Rated 1st by both ChiPS and MARS playing in the Grand Final against the team Rated 2nd by them both. After a week of seeing various statistics quoted about the success of teams of yore whose only similarity to the Dockers was that they also finished as Minor Premiers and/or were playing at home in previous years' Preliminary Finals, my faith in my understanding of the types of patterns than matter and those that don't in analytics is restored.
Read MoreThis week will be an interesting test of the predictive efficacy of statistics and Ratings compared to ladder position and history, as a far lesser-Rated Minor Premier playing at home meets an apparently much better-credentialled opponent that finished 3rd on the ladder at the end of the home-and-away season.
Read MoreWith a surprising result in one of the weekend's two games and, more relevantly, surprising margins in both, Rating changes, especially on MARS, were larger than we'd expect in the Finals.
Read MoreBy now it's one of a fairly small number of scripts that weekends seem to act out for Investors.
Read MoreThis week sees the two Home teams comfortable favourites on the TAB at the time of writing, especially the Hawks, whose $1.30 price tag makes them unavailable for wager for the Head-to-Head Fund. It's responded by placing a moderately sized wager on the other Home team, the Swans, who at $1.55 the Fund sees as exceptional value.
Read MoreThere's not much movement at all on ChiPS this week as we enter the Finals series and the multiplier used to update Team Ratings plummets to its lowest value of the season.
Read MoreThis week's wagering was the antithesis of last week's - though, regrettably, entirely in keeping with the majority of the season - with all four bets providing no return, leaving the Head-to-Head Fund down by 1.5c, the Line Fund down by 1.3c, and the Overall Portfolio down by 1.4c. Across the season then the Portfolio is now down by 34.1c.
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