2026 - Round 29 Results - Can't Complain
/The contrarian Head-to-Head Tipsters - the MoS twins, Bookie Knows Best and Consult the Ladder - were ultimately unsuccessful this week, but only after the Lions staged an astonishing comeback after my in-running model had the Dockers as about 98% chances to win with only a few minutes remaining.
That all left Bookie Knows Best as the season leader on 164.5 from 218 (76%), one tip ahead of ENS_Linear and six ahead of RSMP_Weighted.
The all-Tipster average score for the round was 0.6 from 1, finalising the season-long figure at 153.7 from 218 (71%).
Margin prediction was, on average, very easy this week, with mean absolute errors (MAEs) ranging from Bookie_Hcap’s best of 0.5 points per game to MoSHPlay_Marg’s worst of 10.3 points per game.
Bookie_LPSO finishes on top of the Leaderboard, a position it held from Round 20 onwards. The final margin was just under 26 points from RSMP_Weighted and just over 26 points from Bookie_Hcap. MoSHPlay_Marg finished in last place by just over 30 goals. MoSHBODS_Marg was about 70 points better.
The all-Predictor average for the round was 3.7 points per game and ended the season-long figure at 25.1 points per game.
Log probability scores were all positive this week for the bookmaker-based models and MARS_Prob, and negative for the MoS trio. Narrowly best was Bookie_RE and comfortably worst MoSHPlay_Prob.
Bookie_LPSO finishes in top spot with MoSHPlay_Prob in second and Bookie_RE in third. MARS_Prob ends the season in last place.
WAGERS
Until quite late, it seemed that both the Head-to-Head and Line Funds would make profit on the Grand Final, but that late Lions surge meant that only the Line Fund did.
Consequently, the Combined Portfolio price rose by just over 1c, which meant the Portfolio finished the season up by 15.1c on a +7.3% ROI and a 2.06 turn.
All three Funds finished in profit, which is just about all I think you can reasonably expect.
Thanks for following along this year. I look forward to seeing you here again in 2027.
