2026 - Team Ratings After Round 25 (Week 1 of the Finals)

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MoSHBODS changed the ranking of just two teams this week, elevating Carlton into 6th at the expense of Melbourne.

MARS reranked four teams flipping Carlton into 6th to drop Adelaide to 7th, and dropping Collingwood into 11th behind GWS.

Thst left MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Fremantle, Sydney, and Brisbane Lions, and MARS with Brisbane Lions, Sydney, and Geelong.

MoSHBODS RATINGS

Overall, MoSHBODS has only 10 teams rated as above average with the Saints and Suns falling just below the cutoff.

On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSHBODS still with a Top 3 of Lions, Swans, and Cats, while on defence it now has a Top 3 of Dockers, Blues, and Hawks. Thirteen teams are rated as above average on offence but only six on defence.

Offensive ratings currently span a range of 1.59 standard deviations (steady) and defensive ratings a range of 1.13 standard deviations (steady). The standard deviation of offensive ratings across all teams is 0.46 and that for defensive ratings 0.31. As has been true all season, teams are more differentiated by their offensive abilities than by their defensive abilities.

The correlation between the teams’ MoSHBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.762, which is slightly down on last week.

We can also look at the trajectory that each team has taken so far in 2026 to arrive at their current rating.

MARS RATINGS

MARS now has only 10 teams rated better-than-average, with Collingwood now missing out by just over 2 Rating Points.

As noted earlier, it has a different Top 3 to MoSHBODS, albeit that the four highest-rated teams are separated by only 1.3 Rating Points.

The gap from 1st to 2nd remains 0.7 Rating Points (steady), from 1st to 4th 1.3 Rating Points (steady), and from 1st to 10th is 33.3 Rating Points (up).

Across all 18 teams, the Ratings span 86.5 Rating Points (steady), the mean is 1,000 Rating Points, and the standard deviation is 29.7 Rating Points (down).

COMPARISON OF MOSHBODS AND MARS

The correlation between MoSHBODS’ Combined Ratings and MARS’ Ratings stands at +0.989 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 0.024 times its MARS Rating less 24.

MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of only six teams now, but differ by as much as two spots about only five teams, including a three spot difference for Fremantle.

Overall, the rank correlation between the two Systems is +0.967.