2026 - Round 3 : Still Not Nine

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Another seven-game round is before us this week, with five of them expected to be decided by two goals or less, one by just under five goals, and the seventh by just under eight goals. Combined, the average expected margin per game is just under 17 points.

There are just three home favourites with an average expected victory margin of just over 8 points per game, and four away team favourites with an average expected victory margin of 23.5 points per game.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Again, Home Sweet Home has three-fifths of the round’s contrarian head-to-head forecasts this week, with Consult the Ladder the only other contributor, it once again offering two additional underdog tips of its own. No other Tipster wants to switch from the favourites.

Amongst the Margin Predictors there are double-digit forecast ranges in just three of the games, most notably 14 points in the Dockers v Tigers clash.

MARS_Marg and MoSHBODS_Marg are Extreme Predictors in four games each this week, with no other Predictor extreme in more than two games.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, only one of the seven games has a double-digit percentage point forecast range: Saints v Lions, where the range is 13.6% points.

MARS_Prob is the Extreme Predictor in six games this week, with MoSHBODS_Prob Extreme in four games and Bookie_LPSO Extreme in three.

WAGERS

Investors are wagering solely on underdogs this week with modest head-to-head and less modest line wagers on Richmond and West Coast.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

In total, Investors have 1.5% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and just under 6% of the original Line Fund at risk.

The possible wins and losses in each game in terms of the Combined Portfolio appear below.

(Note that this image can also be clicked on to access a larger version)

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by just under 5c, while a worst case set would snip 5c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSHBODS’ and MARS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about the MoSHBODS’ Totals forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.