MoSHBODS’ average total this week is about the same as the bookmakers’, although three of the single game absolute differences are in the 5 to 10 point range. The average absolute difference between MoSHBODS’ and the bookmakers’ expected margins is 0.5 points per game.

MoSHBODS is forecasting higher totals than both bookmakers in three games, and a lower total than bookmakers in six games, although by only about half-a-point in three of those.

This week there is agreement about all but the most likely lowest-scoring game:

Highest Scoring Game

All: Brisbane Lions v Hawthorn

Lowest Scoring Game

MoSHBODS: West Coast v Collingwood
Bookmakers: Adelaide v Richmond

Highest Scoring Team

All: Geelong

Lowest Scoring Team

All: Richmond

WAGERS

MoSHBODS fancied five wagers this week, but one of them was vetoed by the rain rule. Somewhat surprisingly, in two other games where overs bets would have been vetoed, the offered totals are such that Investors have opted for unders wagers.

One apparently odd wager has Investors taking u170.5 at $1.89 rather than $1.90 in the Eagles v Pies game and that is because the TAB market moved to u169.5 as I was attempting to place a bet.

The four final wagers total just over 6.5% of the original Overs/Unders Fund.

The estimated overlays for the wagers range from about 2 to 5 points.

PREVIOUS WEEK

Last week saw the TAB take mean absolute error (MAE) honours for Home Team Scores and Game Totals, and share that honour with Sportsbet for Game Margins. Sportsbet also took outright honours for Away Team Scores . That results allow the TAB and Sportsbet to take the joint season-long lead on Game Margins, and the TAB take the season-long lead on Game Totals.

The leads in each race are now as follows:

Game Margins: TAB and Sportsbet 7 points ahead of MoSHBODS
Home Team Scores: TAB 10 points ahead of Sportsbet and 42 points ahead of MoSHBODS
Away Team Scores: Sportsbet 9.5 points ahead of the TAB, and 104 points ahead of MoSHBODS
Game Totals: TAB 1 point ahead of Sportsbet, and 224 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Wagering and Game-by-Game Performance

There were five bets last weekend, a winning and two losing overs bets with the TAB, and two winning overs bets with Sportsbet.

That left MoSHBODS at 20 and 17 against the TAB and 12 and 8 against Sportsbet.

Overall, MoSHBODS was on the right side of the TAB in 4 of the 9 games, taking it to 89 from 180 (49%) for the season against the TAB, and on the right side of Sportsbet in 5 of the 9 games taking it to 85 from 180 (47%) for the season against Sportsbet.

The round-by-round performance is shown in the following table.