2026 - Round 22 : More Circumspect

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This week we have five games expected to be decided by about three goals or less, one by about three-and-a-half goals, one by almost six goals, and the last two by about nine or ten goals.

Six games have home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 31.5 points per game, and three have an away team favourite with an expected victory margin of just 10.8 points per game. Across all nine games, the average expected margin is 24.6 points per game.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Home Sweet Home has just three contrarian tips this week, while Consult the Ladder, the RSMP twins, and MARS_Marg have one each. Almost one half of those tips are for the Hawks defeating the Lions, and two are for the Saints in taking on the Blues.

Amongst the Margin Predictors there is a double-digit forecast range in all but two games this week, most notably 26 points in the Cats v Dons game, 21 points in the Crows v Tigers game, and 15 points in the Swans v Power clash.

ENS_Linear is Extreme Predictor in five games this week, MoSHBODS_Marg in four, and Bookie_9 and MARS_Marg in three each.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, there are only two games with a double-digit forecast range, most notably 11% points in the Saints v Blues game.

MoSHBODS_Prob and Bookie_LPSO are the Extreme Predictors in five games each this week, and MARS_Prob in four.

WAGERS

This week there are only two head-to-head wagers totalling just over 2% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and four line wagers totalling just over 5% of the original Line Fund. The only vetoes were on a Port Adelaide line bet, and an Essendon and Fremantle line bets

There were no shenanigans.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The Ready Reckoner for these wagers appears below.

So, best case is an increase in the price of the Combined Portfolio by just under 4c, worst case a decrease by just over 4c.

To finish, here are MoSHBODS’ and MARS’ opinions about likely team scoring, margins and probabilities.

Commentary about the MoSHBODS’ Totals forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.