MoSHBODS’ average total this week is about the same as the bookmakers’, although four of the single game absolute differences are in the 6.4 to 7.4 point range. The average absolute difference between MoSHBODS’ and the TAB’s expected margins is 0.3 points per game and between MoSHBODS’ and Sportsbet’s expected margins is 1.0 points per game

MoSHBODS is forecasting higher totals than both bookmakers in five games, and a lower total than bookmakers in four games.

This week there is agreement about all but the most likely lowest-scoring game and the most-likely lowest-scoring team:

Highest Scoring Game

All: Brisbane Lions v Gold Coast

Lowest Scoring Game

MoSHBODS: Fremantle v Adelaide
Bookmakers: Richmond v St Kilda

Highest Scoring Team

All: Sydney

Lowest Scoring Team

MoSHBODS: Richmond
Bookmakers: Essendon

WAGERS

MoSHBODS fancied seven wagers this week, but one of them was vetoed by the rain rule and three by the Too Good To Be True rule.

The three surviving wagers are all overs wagers and total just under 4% of the original Overs/Unders Fund.

The estimated overlays for the wagers range from about 3 to 7 points.

PREVIOUS WEEK

Last week saw the TAB repeat the feats of the previous week and take mean absolute error (MAE) honours for Game Margins (this time outright), Home Team Scores, and Game Totals. Sportsbet again took outright honours for Away Team Scores. Those results allowed the TAB to reassume outright lead on Game Margins, and to retain the lead on Home Team scores and Game Totals. Sportsbet still leads on Away Team scores.

The leads in each race are now as follows:

Game Margins: TAB 4 points ahead of Sportsbet and 35 points ahead of MoSHBODS
Home Team Scores: TAB 14 points ahead of Sportsbet and 51 points ahead of MoSHBODS
Away Team Scores: Sportsbet 10.5 points ahead of the TAB, and 111 points ahead of MoSHBODS
Game Totals: TAB 3 point ahead of Sportsbet, and 240 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Wagering and Game-by-Game Performance

There were four bets last weekend, a losing overs bets with the TAB and two winning unders bets, and one losing unders bets with Sportsbet.

That left MoSHBODS at 22 and 18 against the TAB and 12 and 9 against Sportsbet.

Overall, MoSHBODS was on the right side of the TAB in only 2 of the 9 games, taking it to 91 from 189 (48%) for the season, and on the right side of Sportsbet in 3 of the 9 games taking it to 88 from 189 (47%) for the season.

The round-by-round performance is shown in the following table.