2025 - Round 8 : Overs/Unders

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The MoS twins have some quite large differences of opinion about likely scoring for a number of games in Round 8, with three differences in the five to seven point range. On average across the nine games, both MoS models are forecasting lower totals than both bookmakers, although this week the difference is only one or two points per game.

Opinions about high- and low-scoring games are quite different this week, but there’s broad agreement about high- and low-scoring teams:

Highest Scoring Game

  • MoSSBODS: Western Bulldogs v Port Adelaide

  • MoSHBODS and Bookmakers: Essendon v North Melbourne

Lowest Scoring Game

  • MoSSBODS: St Kilda v Fremantle

  • MoSHBODS: Sydney v GWS

  • Bookmakers: West Coast v Melbourne

Highest Scoring Team

  • All: Hawthorn

Lowest Scoring Team

  • All: Richmond

WAGERS

MoSSBODS has found four more wagers this week, including two overs, one of which we’ll be passing on due the forecast for showers

The estimated overlays in the wagered-upon games range from about 8 to 13 points, and the wager sizes from 3.1% to 5.5% accordingly.

Altogether, the wagers represent just over 12% of the original Unders/Overs Fund.

PREVIOUS WEEK

Last week was a good one for the MoS twins as MoSSBODS took overall honours for Game Margins and Away Team Scores, and MoSHBODS did the same for Home Team Scores. That left the TAB and Sportsbet to share honours for Game Totals.

MoSHBODS results were good enough to snatch season-long top spot for Game Margins and Home Team Scores away from the TAB, leaving the TAB with only Away Team Scores and Game Totals.

The leads are as follows:

  • Game Margins: MoSHBODS 7 point ahead of the TAB and 18 points ahead of Sportsbet

  • Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS 3 points ahead of the TAB and 12 points ahead of Sportsbet

  • Away Team Scores: the TAB less than 1 point ahead of MoSHBODS and 10 points ahead of Sportsbet

  • Game Totals: the TAB 3 points ahead of Sportsbet, 70 points ahead of MoSHBODS, and 81 points ahead of MoSSBODS

Wagering and Game-by-Game Performance

There were four bets last week: a win and a loss with Sportsbet on unders, and a win and a loss with the TAB also on unders. That left MoSSBODS with a 3 and 8 season-long performance against the TAB, and a 3 and 2 season-long perfomance against Sportsbet.

Overall, both MoSSBODS was on the right side of the TAB Totals 4 times in 9, and on the right side of Sportsbet Totals 5 times in 9. MoSHBODS went 4 and 5 against the TAB, and 3 and 6 against Sportsbet.

That takes MoSSBODS to 27 from 62 (44%) against the TAB and 28 from 62 (44%) against Sportsbet, and MoSHBODS to 32 from 62 (52%) against the TAB, and 30 from 62 (48%) against Sportsbet.

The round-by-round performance is shown in the following chart.