2024 - Round 2 : Overs/Unders

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It’s another week where all four forecasters have roughly the same estimate for the all-game average Total, but where there are some sizeable differences at the level of individual games.

There is also a moderate level of agreement about this week’s highests and lowests:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • All: West Coast v Sydney

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoS twins: Sydney v Collingwood

  • Bookmakers: Western Bulldogs v Gold Coast

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: GWS

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoS twins: Essendon

  • Bookmakers: West Coast

WAGERS

Investors have four wagers this week, including the first two overs bets of the season.

The estimated overlays for the games where we’ve wagers range from 4.5 to 15 points, and the wager sizes from 1.3% to 6.7% accordingly.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) were again shared around in Round 1:

  • Game Margins: MoSHBODS

  • Home Team Scores: TAB

  • Away Team Scores: MoSSBODS

  • Game Totals: Sportsbet

With the TAB taking the lead from MoSHBODS on Home Team Scores, MoSHBODS taking the lead from Sportsbet on Away Team Scores, and Sportsbet taking the outright lead on Game Totals after having been tied with the TAB, the leads across all four metrics are as follows:

Game Margins: MoSHBODS 20 points ahead of MoSSBODS and 31 points ahead of the TAB

Home Team Scores: TAB 3 points ahead of MoSHBODS and 7 points ahead of the Sportsbet

Away Team Scores: MoSHBODS 4 points ahead of MoSSBODS and 16 points ahead of Sportsbet

Game Totals: Sportsbet 3 points ahead of the TAB and 20 points ahead of MoSSBODS

MoSSBODS had three wagers last week, two unders with the TAB that finished 1 and 1, a lone losing unders with Sportsbet.

It ended then at 2 and 1 with the TAB, and at 0 and 1 with Sportsbet, for an overall 2 and 2 record.

Across all games, MoSSBODS landed 5 from 9 against the TAB and 6 from 9 against Sportsbet, while MoSHBODS landed 4 from 4 against both bookmakers. That took MoSSBODS to 6 from 13 (46%) against the TAB and 8 from 13 (62%) against Sportsbet, and took MoSHBODS to 5 from 13 (39%) against both bookmakers.