2019 - Team Ratings After Round 3
/It’s now three weeks and three different leaders for the MoS twins, though you get the feeling that this week’s leader, Geelong, might be there for a while.
That said, the Cats’ lead is paper-thin on both Systems, so anything other than an on- or above-par performance in their Round 4 clash with GWS could see GWS or West Coast take top spot.
The week’s big movers on MoSSBODS were Essendon and Gold Coast (both up 3 places), and Collingwood, Melbourne and Fremantle (all down 3 places). On MoSHBODS we had Essendon up 3 spots, and Collingwood down 3 spots as the round’s biggest movers.
It’s quite congested at the top of MoSSBODS now, with the first four teams separated by only 0.8 of a scoring shot (or about 3 points). The gap is only slightly bigger on MoSHBODS, where 1st to 4th are separated by 3.5 points. Across the top eight teams the range on MoSSBODS is 4 scoring shots (or about 14.5 points) and on MoSHBODS it’s approximately the same. That’s about 1 point less than the equivalent range last season.
The week’s moves have left the Systems now differing in their rankings of all but the Brisbane Lions and Adelaide by no more than two places. The Lions currently sit 7th on MoSSBODS and 10th on MoSHBODS, while Adelaide are in 10th on MoSSBODS and 7th on MoSHBODS.
Only nine teams now have a positive Combined Rating on MoSSBODS, down two from last week. Ten still have a positive Combined Rating on MoSHBODS.
Turning next to the component ratings of the two MoS Systems we find that GWS is now ranked 1st offensively by MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS. Defensively Collingwood remains 1st on MoSSBODS, but Geelong has assumed that position on MoSHBODS.
The gap between 1st and 8th on offence for MoSSBODS is 1.7 scoring shots (or about 6 points) and for MoSHBODS is 4.5 points. On defence the gap is 2.2 scoring shots (or about 8 points) for MoSSBODS, and 10.3 points for MoSHBODS.
Looking across all 18 teams we find that:
on offence, no teams are ranked more than two places differently by the two Systems
on defence, Sydney are ranked 16th on MoSSBODS and 10th on MoSHBODS, the Brisbane Lions 13th on MoSSBODS and 16th on MoSHBODS, Adelaide 17th on MoSSBODS and 13th on MoSHBODS, Melbourne 12th on MoSSBODS and 15th on MoSHBODS, and Gold Coast 11th on MoSSBODS and 14th on MoSHBODS. That’s the highest level of disagreement between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS on either component that I can remember for some time
We can place the teams’ current offensive and defensive ratings in an historical context by comparing them with those of teams from the past at the same point in their respective seasons (ie after three rounds of the home-and-away season).
Teams shown as red points are teams that eventually finished premiers, and those shown in orange finished as runners up.
GWS, Geelong and West Coast all have Combined Ratings that are around or just above the median for all previous Grand Finalists at this point in the season.
In contrast, Gold Coast, North Melbourne, Fremantle, Sydney, and Carlton have Combined Ratings that are better only than that of a single previous Premier, Adelaide in 1997. At this point in their season, Adelaide were 1 and 2 having finished 12th with an 8 and 14 record in 1996, including losses in each of the last five rounds and large losses in the last two.
The following animation shows the path that each team has followed, at the end of each round, to get to its current rating.
Next we turn to ChiPS and MARS who both climbed aboard the Geelong train last weekend and who continue to rank the Cats as the number 1 team, now ahead of West Coast and GWS in that order for both Systems.
In fact, ChiPS and MARS now have identical top 6s, and disagree about the rankings of only two teams by more than a couple of spots. As for the MoS twins, it’s the Lions and the Crows that have elicited most disagreement here: the Lions sit 7th on ChiPS and 12th on MARS, while Adelaide sits 12th on ChiPS and 8th on MARS.
Looking across the rankings of all four Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder, we find that:
Sydney still has the widest range of rankings, from 8th on ChiPS to 16th on MoSSBODS
Brisbane Lions have the next-widest range of rankings, from 7th on MoSSBODS and ChiPS to 12th on MARS
St Kilda have the same range of rankings, from 11th on MoSSBODS to 16th on MARS
Adelaide also have the same range of rankings, from 7th on MoSHBODS to 12th on ChiPS
No other team is ranked more than four places differently across the four Systems
We also see fairly large positive differences between ladder position and Rating System rankings (ie Rating System ranking less ladder position) for the Lions, Dockers, Dogs, and Suns, and large negative differences for the Pies, Tigers, Dons, and Dees.
