2019 - Team Ratings After Round 19

On MoSSBODS this week, Richmond and GWS tradecien 2nd and 3rd behind Brisbane Lions,37u while, on MoSHBODS, Geelong grabbed 3rd from Brisbane Lions, and GWS and Richmond retained 1st and 2nd.

That left MoSSBODS with a Top 3 of Lions, Tigers, and Giants (separated by only 0.8 Scoring Shots), and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Giants, Tigers and Cats (separated by 5.7 points).

The big movers on MoSSBODS were Western Bulldogs (up 4 spots to 8th), and Melbourne (down 4 spots to 14th), while the big mover on MoSHBODS was Adelaide (down 3 spots to 11th). No other team moved by more than 2 spots on either System.

In total, MoSSBODS changed the ranking of 15 teams this week and MoSHBODS changed the ranking of just 9, which left the Systems now differing in their rankings of only three teams by more than three spots:

  • Western Bulldogs, ranked 8th by MoSSBODS, and 12th by MoSHBODS

  • West Coast, ranked 9th and 5th

  • Essendon, ranked 12th and 7th

Ratings remain compressed on both Systems. On MoSSBODS, 2nd and 13th are now separated by only 4.4 Scoring Shots, and on MoSHBODS 3rd and 13th are separated by only 15.8 points.

The underlying MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Team Ratings remain highly correlated.

MoSSBODS now rates 10 teams as above-average, and MoSHBODS 12, the latter adding Adelaide and Essendon to the former’s list.

On the Component Ratings, on offence we see Brisbane Lions still in top spot on both Systems, and now ahead of Richmond and Western Bulldogs on MoSSBODS, and now Richmond and GWS on MoSHBODS.

On defence, GWS remains 1st on both Systems, while MoSSBODS now has Port Adelaide in 2nd, and Richmond in 3rd, while MoSHBODS still has Geelong in 2nd, and Richmond in 3rd.

On MoSSBODS, 5 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (no change), 7 are rated negatively on both (up 2), two are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (up 1), and 4 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (down 3).

Only five teams are in different quadrants under the two Systems:

  • Adelaide (negative offence and defence on MoSSBODS, positive offence and defence on MoSHBODS)

  • West Coast (positive offence and negative defence on MoSSBODS, positive offence and defence on MoSHBODS)

  • North Melbourne (positive offence and defence on MoSSBODS, positive offence and negative defence on MoSHBODS)

  • Sydney and Fremantle (negative offence and defence on MoSSBODS, negative offence and positive defence on MoSHBODS)

Looking across all 18 teams we find that:

  • on offence, only Hawthorn is ranked more than 3 spots differently by the two Systems

  • on defence, only West Coast, North Melbourne, St Kilda, and Fremantle are ranked more than 3 spots differently by the two Systems

Next, let’s compare each team’s current ratings with those of teams from the past at the same point in their respective seasons (ie after 19 rounds of the home-and-away season). Note that we lose any team from a season with a home-and-away portion that didn’t span at least 19 rounds.

Teams shown as red points are teams that eventually finished premiers, and those shown in orange finished as runners up.

It remains the case that no team has a Combined Rating above the median for all previous Grand Finalists at this point in the season, and only Brisbane Lions, Richmond, and GWS are above the lowest decile. At the other end, Carlton, Sydney, Fremantle, St Kilda, and Gold Coast all still have Combined Ratings lower than that of any previous Grand Finalist at this point in the season.

If we focus purely on the seasons from 2000 onwards, we obtain, as we have for a few weeks now, a similar picture for the teams above the median (ie none of them), but a lot more teams with Combined Ratings below the lowest level for any previous Grand Finalist during that period.

The following animation shows the path that each team has followed, at the end of each round, to get to its current rating, and shows the unusual offence-dominant path that the Lions have followed especially since Round 13.

MoSSBODS Ratings At End of Rounds 1 to 19.gif

ChiPS left its Top 4 unchanged this week, while MARS left Geelong in top spot and Richmond in 4th while swapping West Coast for GWS in 2nd.

Richmond’s rating lead over Geelong on ChiPS stretched to 5.2 Rating Points, while Geelong’s lead, now over West Coast on MARS stands at 8.6 Rating Points.

ChiPS re-ranked just six teams, and MARS 12 teams, with no team moving by more than a single place on either System.

That’s left the two of them, still, disagreeing about the ranking of only Richmond, Sydney, and Adelaide by more than two places.

We can see the continuing high level of correlation between ChiPS and MARS Ratings by charting them.

Looking across the rankings of all four Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder, we find that:

  • Sydney and West Coast have the widest range of rankings (Sydney from 9th on ChiPS to 16th on MoSSBODS; West Coast 2nd on MARS to 9th on MoSSBODS)

  • Essendon, Western Bulldogs, and Port Adelaide are next (Essendon 12th on MoSSBODS and 7th on the other three Systems, Western Bulldogs 8th on MoSSBODS and 13th on ChiPS and MARS, and Port Adelaide 6th on MoSSBODS and 11th on ChiPS)

No other team is ranked more than four places differently across the four Systems.

Gold Coast remains the only team ranked identically by all four Systems, but six other teams’ rankings cover only two or three values.

Fremantle is now ranked at least three places lower than their ladder position by all Systems.