2019 - Round 20 : Can MoSHPlay Bounce Back?

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Round 20 sees the average bookmaker handicap at 19.1 points per game, the highest it’s been for a single round since Round 16, but a relatively low average by historical standards for a Round 19, nonetheless.

That average is a result of 6 games having an expected margin of greater than 3 goals, and just 1 game having an expected margin less than 2 goals.

The 2019 all-season average now stands at 17.0 points per game, which is almost 4 points per game below the 2018 average. Traditionally, Rounds 21 through 23 have had somewhat higher expected margins, so it’ll be interesting to see if this year is any different.

To the MoS forecasters then.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

The only underdog support from other than Home Sweet Home comes this week in the Friday night North Melbourne v Hawthorn clash, where five Head-to-Head Tipsters have opted for the Hawks. Those five include both RSMP Tipsters, which could see them share top spot on the Leaderboard at the end of the round, or fall one tip behind Bookie Knows Best.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, only that North Melbourne v Hawks game has produced forecasts on either side of zero, though there are single-digit margin predictions in three other games.

The mean expected margin across all games and all Predictors is 18.8 points per game, which is just 0.3 points per game lower than the bookmaker’s average.

The largest range of forecasts are for the Pies v Suns game, where they span 23 points range thanks to C_Marg and Bookie_9. There’s also a 20 point range in the Crows v Saints game, thanks mostly to C_Marg, and 17 point ranges in the Giants v Swans, and Blues v Eagles games.

C_Marg is the most extreme forecaster in five games this week, MoSSBODS_Marg in four, and Bookie_9 in three.

Turning, finally, to the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, we find the largest range in probability estimates in percentage point terms in the Giants v Swans game where the forecasts span 18% points. Next-largest is the 17% point range for the Blues v Eagles game, followed by the Crows v Saints game with 16% points. The remaining games are all in the 8% to 11% point range.

C_Prob and MoSSBODS_Prob have the round's most extreme estimates in four contests, Bookie_RE and MoSHBODS_Prob in three each.

WAGERS

Investors face another moderately busy week this week, with eight wagers across six of the nine games putting almost 6% of the original Combined Funds in play. There are four head-to-head wagers, ranging in size from 0.5% to 5.7% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and four line wagers, three of them on underdogs and ranging in size from 0.6% to 2.8% of the original Line Fund.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

Most risk this week (as measured by the difference between best and worst outcomes) is borne by Carlton. The difference between successful and unsuccessful head-to-head and line wagers on them represents 3.4% of the original Combined Portfolio, as you can see in the Ready Reckoner below.

We also have GWS carrying 1.9% risk, Brisbane Lions carrying 1.8% risk, and Collingwood, Port Adelaide, and Melbourne, all carrying between 0.9% and 1.3% risk.

In total, just under 6% of the original Combined Portfolio is at risk, and the maximum upside is 4.5%.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS' and MoSHBODS' opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.