2019 - Round 16 : Same Again?

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Though this week, unlike last week, does have a couple of games that are expected to be decided by under two goals, the remaining seven have handicaps large enough that the overall average has come in at the same value as last week, which is just over 20 points per game.

The biggest handicap is 34.5 points in the Suns v Tigers game, which is the largest for a single game since the Giants v Suns game in Round 11 where the Suns were receiving 48.5 points start (and actually needed 83.5).

Notwithstanding that, the average for this Round 16 is still below the all-time average for Round 16s, and slightly less than the all-season figure for 2018.

The 2019 all-season average now stands at 17.0 points per game.

With the average favourite priced at under $1.40, let’s see what the MoS models make of it all.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Home Sweet Home aside, underdog support is fairly scant this week, with only MoSSBODS_Marg (Port Adelaide) and C_Marg (Carlton) choosing even a single non-favourite.

If MoSHPlay_Marg chooses to follow MoSHBODS_Marg’s lead then, there’ll be no movement at the top of the Head-to-Head Tipsters Leaderboard.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, only the Power v Crows and the Blues v Dees games have produced forecasts on either side of zero, both courtesy of those lone contrarian forecasts by MoSSBODS_Marg and C_Marg.

The mean expected margin is 16.2 points per game, which is an unusually large 4 points per game lower than the bookmaker’s average.

The largest range of forecasts are for the Roos v Saints game, where it’s 26 points thanks to C_Marg and MoSSBODS_Marg. The next-largest ranges are for the Power v Crows, and Blues v Dees matchups where it’s 23 points. In the remaining games the ranges are all between 6 and 21 points.

C_Marg is the most extreme forecaster in five games again this week. MoSSBODS_Marg in four, Bookie_3 in three, Bookie_Hcap and MoSHBODS_Marg in two, and Bookie_9 and RSMP_Weighted in one.

Turning, finally, to the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, we find the largest ranges in percentage point terms in the Power v Crows, and Blues v Dees games where the forecasts span 23% points. Next-largest is the 20% point range for the Dockers v Eagles game, followed by the Dogs v Cats game with 18% points. Two more games have double-digit ranges, making this, I suspect, a round with one of the highest average ranges this season.

MoSSBODS_Prob and Bookie_RE have the round's most extreme estimates in five contests, C_Prob in four, Bookie_OE and MoSHBODS_Prob in two.

WAGERS

A much busier week for Investors this week, with a dozen wagers across seven games putting over 9% of the original Combined Funds in play, which is the largest proportion wagered head-to-head and line since Round 5. There are six head-to-head wagers, five of them ranging in size from 0.5% to 0.9%, but the sixth a massive 6.7% (on North Melbourne), and six line wagers, ranging in size from 0.8% to 3.1%.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

Despite the largest of the wagers being on North Melbourne, it’s the Western Bulldogs and Fremantle that are carrying the greatest risk of any team this week at 3.7% of the original Combined Portfolio (as measured by the difference between best and worst outcomes), as you can see in the Ready Reckoner below.

(You might notice that I ended up with the Dogs +23.5 at $1.88 rather than the $1.90 that was also on offer. There was quite a bit of repricing going on in the Dogs v Cats, and Dockers v Eagles games as I was placing the bets, so I think I simply missed this slightly better opportunity.)

We also have Hawthorn carrying 3.4% risk, Gold Coast 2.5%, Carlton and North Melbourne 2.2%, and Port Adelaide 0.8%. The value of the Combined Portfolio is going to move - one way or the other - by some fairly large margins this week.

In total, 9.4% of the original Combined Portfolio is at risk, and the maximum upside is 9%.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS' and MoSHBODS' opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.