2019 - Round 16 : Overs/Unders

It’s another week of broad, overall agreement between the MoS twins and the bookmakers, though the twins have tended towards very slightly lower total scores.

For most-likely low-scoring game we have everyone lined up behind the Suns v Tigers game, but for most-likely high-scoring game we have the MoS twins favouring the Giants v Lions game, and the bookmakers Dogs v Cats.

As low-scoring team we have unanimity about the Suns for that role, although MoSSBODS has the Saints sharing it, and for high-scoring team we have the Giants according to the MoS twins, the Roos according to the TAB, and the Cats according to Easybet.


The mean absolute error (MAE) honours for the week were shared between the two bookmakers yet again, with the TAB 1st on Game Margin, Home Team Score and Total Score, and Easybet 1st on Away Team Score.

That left MoSHBODS still 1st overall for the season on Total Score MAE, but saw the TAB take 1st from MoSHBODS on Home Team Score MAE. Easybet remains 1st on Away Team Score MAE, and the TAB 1st on Game Margin.


This week, MoSSBODS has identified only two possible wagers, but passed on one due to forecast inclement weather for Sydney on Sunday.

(We actually only just got on the one we did by a minute or so, the line moving to 165.5 shortly after we’d locked in at 167.5. I somehow don’t think my rounding error of a bet was the cause).

The overlays this week range from near 0 to almost 8 points across the nine games, and is at that maximum in the game we’ve wagered on - an unders bet on Dogs v Cats.

There were two from three successful wagers last week, after which MoSSBODS’ record against the TAB moved to at 11 and 8, and that against Easybet remained at 18 and 13, lifting the overall win rate to 58% for the season.

Across the entirety of the round, MoSSBODS landed on the right side of the TAB in 6 of the 9 games, and on the right side of Easybet in 5 of 9. MoSHBODS managed 6 from 9 against both bookmakers. That took MoSSBODS to 57% for the season against the TAB and Easybet, and MoSHBODS to 57% against the TAB, and 56% against Easybet.