2019 - Round 15 : The Whole 9 Games

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Back to nine games for this week’s round, which always seems a much larger than 50% increase when you’re doing the data input.

No game this week has a bookmaker handicap of less than two goals, and only one has a handicap of much more than four, which has made for an all-game average of just over 20 points per game.

That’s quite high by 2019 standards, but a few points less than the all-time average for Round 15s, and slightly less than the all-season figure for 2018.

The 2019 all-season average now stands at 16.8 points per game.

Let’s see what the MoS models make of it all.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

This week, it’s the Hawks v Eagles game that has attracted the most underdog support from the Head-to-Head Tipsters, with Home Sweet Home, C_Marg, and both the MoS twins opting for the Hawks.

Across the six games we have Home Sweet Home going contrarian once again in three games, C_Marg in two, and MoSSBODS_Marg and MoSHBODS_Marg in one each.

Again, if MoSHPlay_Marg chooses to follow MoSHBODS_Marg’s lead, the chasing pack of Bookie Knows Best and the RSMP twins will have the opportunity to close the gap at the top of the Leaderboard by one more tip this week.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, only the Hawks v Eagles and the Pies v Roos games have produced forecasts on either side of zero, though in the latter case only because of C_Marg’s highly contrarian forecast of a 2-point Roos win.

The mean expected margin is 19.5 points per game, which is about half a point per game lower than the bookmaker’s average.

The largest range of forecasts are for the Pies v Roos game, where it’s 26 points thanks to C_Marg. The next-largest range is for the Saints v Tigers matchup where it’s 23 points. In the remaining games the ranges are all between 8 and 21 points.

After being most extreme forecaster in zero games last week, C_Marg has that position in five games this week. MoSSBODS_Marg and MoSHBODS_Marg have it in three games, Bookie_3, Bookie_9, and RSMP_Weighted in two and in two, and Bookie_Hcap in one (meaning that, in this particular case, every forecaster is predicting a victory margin larger than the bookmaker’s handicap).

Turning, finally, to the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, we find the largest range in percentage point terms in the Pies v Roos game where the forecasts span 26% points (from 48% to 74%). Next-largest is the 21% point range for the Hawks v Eagles game, followed by the Saints v Tigers game with 19% points (from 21% to 40%).

C_Prob has the round's most extreme estimates in four contests, Bookie_LPSO, MoSSBODS_Prob, and MoSHBODS_Prob in three each, and Bookie_RE and Bookie_OE in two.

WAGERS

A relatively subdued week for Investors this week in terms of number of bets, but still 5% of the original Combined Funds in play, which is about the same as was at risk in Round 14.. There are three head-to-head wagers, ranging in size from 0.6% to 5.4%, and three line wagers, ranging in size from 1.8% to 3.5%.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

Despite the largest of the wagers being on Geelong, it’s Hawthorn that’s carrying the greatest risk of any team this week at 4.2% of the original Combined Portfolio (as measured by the difference between best and worst outcomes), as you can see in the Ready Reckoner below.

Geelong, North Melbourne, and St Kilda, the only other teams carrying any risk at all, are each responsible for between 1.8% and 2.4% of the original Combined Funds.

In total, just over 5% of the original Combined Portfolio is at risk, and the maximum upside is just under 5%.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS' and MoSHBODS' opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.