2019 - Round 15 : Overs/Unders
/This week, all nine totals markets were up when I checked at 2pm. Different week, different process, I guess.
The MoS twins have very similar views about the likely average total score across those nine contests, their average total coming within a point of the bookmakers’, but there are a number of individual games where the differences are starker.
For most-likely low-scoring game we have the MoS twins selecting the Dockers v Blues game, and the bookmakers opting for the Power v Dogs game (and the Hawks v Eagles game in the case of Easybet). For most-likely high-scoring game we have unanimity about it being the Lions v Dees game, although Easybet also has the Dons v Giants game as being equally likely.
For low-scoring team we have Carlton as MoSSBODS’ sole selection, while MoSHBODS and the two bookmakers have it a tie between Gold Coast and Carlton.
PERFORMANCE TO DATE
The mean absolute error (MAE) honours for the week were shared between the two bookmakers, with Easybet 1st on Home Team Score and Total Score, the TAB 1st on Away Team Score, and the pair tied on Game Margin.
That left MoSHBODS still 1st overall for the season on Home Team Score MAE and Total Score MAE, Easybet still 1st on Away Team Score MAE, and the TAB still on 1st place on Game Margin.
WAGERS
This week, MoSSBODS has identified five possible wagers, but passed on two due to forecast inclement weather for the MCG and the Adelaide Oval on Saturday.
The overlays in the games wagered on range from about 7 to 11 points.
There was only one, successful wager last week, after which MoSSBODS’ record against the TAB moved to at 9 and 7, and that against Easybet remained at 18 and 13, leaving the overall win rate to 57% for the season.
Across the entirety of the round, the MoS twins landed on the right side of the bookmakers’ totals in only 2 of the 6 games, leaving MoSSBODS at 56% for the season against the TAB and 57% against Easybet, and MoSHBODS at 56% for the season against the TAB and Easybet.
