2018 - Team Ratings After Round 19
/Some stability at the top of the MoS twins' ratings this week where we find exactly the same Top 4 teams at the end of the round as we had at the start. For MoSSBODS, that's Richmond, Melbourne, GWS and then Collingwood, while for MoSHBODS it's Richmond, GWS, Melbourne and then Collingwood.
Further down the ladder, MoSSBODS has six teams in all moving places, including Essendon, Port Adelaide and St Kilda each climbing two spots, and West Coast falling four. MoSHBODS has re-ranked seven teams but with Essendon the only team moving multiple spots. They climbed two places to 6th.
That left the two Systems agreeing about the ranking of seven teams, and differing in the ranking of only three teams by more than a single place:
- West Coast, who are 9th on MoSSBODS and 5th on MoSHBODS
- Port Adelaide, who are 7th on MoSSBODS and 9th on MoSHBODS
- Sydney, who are 14th on MoSSBODS and 12th on MoSHBODS
Looking next at the component ratings, we see that:
- MoSSBODS now has a Top 3 on offence of Richmond, Melbourne and the Essendon, the latter having climbed four places to take 3rd. Its Top 3 on defence is unchanged and is Richmond, Port Adelaide and then Collingwood.
- MoSHBODS' s Top 3 on offence is now Richmond, Melbourne and then GWS, while its Top 3 on defence remains Richmond, Port Adelaide, and then GWS.
Across all 18 teams, no team is now ranked more than three places differently on offence by the two Systems, and none is ranked more than two places differently on defence by the two Systems. The largest discrepancies on offence are for West Coast (11th on MoSSBODS and 8th on MoSHBODS), North Melbourne (12th on MoSSBODS and 9th on MoSHBODS), and St Kilda (9th on MoSSBODS and 12th on MoSHBODS).
The latest version of the animated GIF of MoSSBODS ratings appears below, and shows movements up or down by more than 0.5 Scoring Shots on either offence or defence only for:
- Essendon +0.9 on offence and +0.5 on defence
- Sydney -0.5 on offence and -0.9 on defence
- West Coast -1.5 on offence
- Western Bulldogs -0.9 on offence
- GWS -0.8 on offence
- Gold Coast -0.7 on offence
- North Melbourne +1.5 on defence
- Port Adelaide +0.9 on defence
- St Kilda +0.8 on defence
- Carlton +0.7 on defence
On Combined Rating, the big movers were:
- North Melbourne +1.5
- Essendon +1.3
- St Kilda +1.0
- Port Adelaide +0.9
- West Coast -1.5
- Sydney -1.3
- GWS -1.0
- Western Bulldogs -0.9
Relative to history, Richmond's Combined Rating remains in the top decile of teams at this point in the season that ultimately played in the Grand Final, and Melbourne remains the only other team above the median.
Sydney, who have fallen to 9th on the competition ladder, have now also fallen below the Combined Rating of all previous Grand Finalists at the end of Round 19.
As things stand now:
- seven teams have a positive offensive and a positive defensive rating (unchanged from last week)
- none has a positive offensive and a negative defensive rating (down one from last week)
- four have a negative offensive and a positive defensive rating (up one from last week)
- seven have a negative offensive and a negative defensive rating (unchanged from last week)
In total, only seven teams now have a positive offensive rating while 11 have a positive defensive rating.
On ChiPS this week, 12 teams changed places, though only four by multiple spots: Hawthorn (up 3), Melbourne (up 2), Sydney (down 2), and West Coast (down 3). Only five teams were re-ranked on MARS, but four of those were by multiple spots as well: Hawthorn (up 4), Geelong (up 2), West Coast (down 2), and Sydney (down 3).
Both Systems still agree that the top team is Richmond, but ChiPS now has Melbourne in 2nd and Collingwood in 3rd, while MARS has Geelong in 2nd and Melbourne in 3rd.
The two Systems differ now by more than two places in their rankings only of Collingwood, ranked 3rd on ChiPS and 6th on MARS.
Looking across the team rankings of all four Systems and comparing them with the current competition ladder, we find that:
- Melbourne, Geelong, the Brisbane Lions, and now Essendon too, sit significantly lower on the competition ladder than their ranking on at least two of the Rating Systems.
- West Coast and Port Adelaide sit significantly higher on the competition ladder than their ranking on all of the Rating Systems.
- GWS (2nd to 9th) is ranked seven places differently across the Rating Systems.
- Sydney (8th to 14th) is ranked six places differently across the Rating Systems.
- Essendon (5th to 11th) is also ranked six places differently across the Rating Systems.
- West Coast (4th to 9th) is ranked five places differently across the Rating Systems.
- Geelong (2nd to 7th) is also ranked five places differently across the Rating Systems.
- No other team is ranked more than three places differently across the Rating Systems.
