2018 - Team Ratings After Round 15

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MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS were both far less impressed with the Pies' win over the Suns than they were with the Tigers' over the Swans, which meant that the gaps between the Tigers and the Pies at the head of the respective rating leaderboards increased this week.

Richmond are now rated 4 Scoring Shots higher than Collingwood on MoSSBODS, and about 14 points higher on MoSHBODS. GWS fills 3rd place on both Systems after climbing two places on each.

On MoSSBODS, GWS were one of two teams rising by more than a single spot, the other one being the Lions who climbed two places into 13th. Two teams fell by two places as well, West Coast into 6th, and Fremantle into 16th.

MoSHBODS also had GWS climbing two spots into 3rd, and two teams slipping two places, Melbourne into 6th, and Fremantle into 15th.

That left the two Systems agreeing about the ranking of eight teams, and differing in the ranking of the other 10 by no more than two places. It also left them agreeing that there are currently 11 above-average teams, and 7 below-average teams.

Looking next at the component ratings, we see that:

  • MoSSBODS now has a Top 3 on offence of Richmond, Melbourne and then GWS, the latter team relegating Collingwood into 4th this week
  • MoSHBODS' Top 3 on offence is unchanged from last week, and remains Richmond, Melbourne and then Collingwood
  • MoSSBODS has a Top 3 on defence of Richmond, Port Adelaide and then Sydney, after the Swans climbed two places this week. This aligned MoSSBODS' opinion with MoSHBODS', which was unchanged from last week's.

Across all 18 teams we find that Brisbane Lions is ranked 9th by MoSSBODS and 13th by MoSHBODS on Offence and that no other team is ranked more than two places differently on either component by the two Systems.

In the latest (revamped, XXL guernsey-sized) version of the animated GIF, which appears below, we can see Richmond slightly extending its lead over Collingwood, and starting to gap the field once again.

MoSSBODS Ratings At End of Rounds 1 to 15 - Smooth.gif

Relative to history, Richmond's Combined Rating improved slightly this week, moving them back into the top decile of teams at this point in the season that ultimately finished in the Top 2. Collingwood have now fallen below the median rating of previous Top 2 finishers.

The lack of an offensive powerhouse in season 2018 is also obvious here.

As things stand now:

  • six teams have a positive offensive and a positive defensive rating (up one from last week)
  • one has a positive offensive and a negative defensive rating (also up one from last week)
  • five have a negative offensive and a positive defensive rating (down three from last week)
  • six have a negative offensive and a negative defensive rating (up one from last week)

In total, 11 teams now have a negative offensive rating and seven have a negative defensive rating.

On ChiPS this week, eight teams moved places, though only Melbourne (down 3) moved by more than a single spot. Nine teams moved on MARS, but only Hawthorn (down 2) by more than a single spot. 

Ratings are still compressed on both Systems, with the rating difference between Collingwood in 3rd and GWS in 9th on ChiPS just 6 Rating Points, and that between Geelong in 3rd and Hawthorn in 10th on MARS less than 11 Rating Points. (Note that previous analyses have suggested that 1 Rating Point on ChiPS is roughly equivalent to one actual point scored, and that 1 Rating Point on MARS is roughly equivalent to three-quarters of an actual point scored).

The two Systems differ now by more than two places in their rankings only of:

  • Collingwood, ranked 3rd on ChiPS and 6th on MARS
  • Hawthorn, ranked 7th on ChiPS and 10th on MARS
  • Adelaide, ranked 12th on ChiPS and 8th on MARS

Looking across the team rankings of all four Systems and comparing them with the current competition ladder, we find that:

  • GWS (3rd to 9th) is ranked six places differently across the Rating Systems.
  • Sydney (2nd to 7th), and Geelong (3rd to 8th) are ranked five places differently across the Rating Systems.
  • Collingwood (2nd to 6th), Melbourne (4th to 8th), and Adelaide (8th to 12th), are ranked four places differently across the Rating Systems.
  • No other team is ranked more than three places differently across the Rating Systems.