2018 - Round 16 : MoSSBODS Gets Confident (Or Cocky - I'll Let You Know Which on Sunday Night)

Only one game this weekend has an expected margin in single digits - the Essendon v Collingwood game - and four of them are expected to be decided by five goals or more, so impartial followers might be in for a disappointingly one-sided round.

Combined, the TAB bookmaker's all-game average is just under 25 points per game, up four points on last week's average, and almost five points up on the all-season average, which now stands at 20 points per game. That's two points higher than the 2017 average of 18 points per game.

The large number of relatively firm favourites probably augurs badly for those hoping for dissension amongst the MoS Head-to-Head Tipsters.

Let's take a look.


Yep, yep, it does ...

Even Home Sweet Home has gone underdog in just two games this week, and is joined by C_Marg in but a single contest: Essendon v Collingwood. There'll be no moves of any significance on the Head-to-Head Tipsters Leaderboard this week, then.

There's a bit more of interest in the Margin Predictors though where MoSSBODS_Marg, fresh off two consecutive weeks producing the all-Predictor low mean absolute error (MAE), has reeled off a set of forecasts with a mean absolute deviation (MAD) of 7.5 points per game, an all_Predictor high for the week. It has the extreme predictions in seven of the nine contests.

C_Marg has the next-highest MAD of 5.9 points per game, but has the most extreme prediction in only four contests, while MoSHBODS_Marg has the third-highest MAD of 4.6 points per game and an extreme prediction in only two of the contests.

Looking across the matches, only the Melbourne v Fremantle game has produced a MAD of over 5 points per Predictor. The MAD there is 6.4, elevated especially by the MoS twins' and C_Marg's relatively low margin forecasts for the home team win.

In comparison to the current leader, Bookie_Hcap, a best set of results for MoSSBODS_Marg would see it move from about 61 points behind to about 19 points ahead, while a best set of results for MoSHBODS_Marg would see it move from about 116 to about 60 points behind.

The mean expected margin across the nine games and all Margin Predictors is 24.1 points per game, about half a point a game lower than the TAB bookmaker's average,.

Turning lastly to the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, we find the largest MAD in the probability estimates for the Melbourne v Fremantle game where it's 5.6% points per Predictor. The largest range of estimates comes in the Essendon v Collingwood game, however, where it is 23% points, spanning a MoSSBODS_Prob low of 35% to a C_Prob high of 58%.

MoSSBODS_Prob, which last week leapt into 2nd place on the Leaderboard, again has the round's largest MAD, this week at 5.5% points per game, and has the most extreme estimate in seven of the contests. C_Prob has the next-largest MAD of 5.0% points per game and the most extreme estimate in four contests.


It's a very restrained set of recommended wagers this week - just three from MoSHBODS in the head-to-head markets, and five from MoSSBODS in the line markets, and none of them larger than 2% of the relevant Fund.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The largest of the head-to-head wagers is on Fremantle at $6, and the two others are on teams priced in the $2.45 to $2.85 range. Combined, the head-to-head and line wagers represent 3.2% of the original Head-to-Head Fund.

In the line market bets range from 0.6% to 1.8% and the handicaps from -17.5 to +41.5. The largest line bet is also on Fremantle, which means that it carries by far the largest risk, with a win by it promising a 3.4c gain, and a loss by 38 points or more a 1.2c loss.

After that, the only material swing is in the Dogs v Hawks game, where a Dogs win will add 1c, and a Dogs loss by 16 points or more will knock 0.7c off the Combined Portfolio price.

(You might notice that there's an estimated 8 point overlay for the Roos in the line market using Centrebet's handicap of -43.5, which is 8.1 points less than MoSSBODS expected margin of 51.6 points in that game. While technically that means a bet is recommended, the suggested size rounds to 0.0% ...)

In total, 3.2% of the original Combined Portfolio is at risk and the maximum upside is just under 6%. 

To finish, here are MoSHBODS' and MoSSBODS' opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog.