2017 - Team Ratings After Round 17

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There were no changes to the Top 3 teams on MoSSBODS or MoSHBODS this week, the first ranking change for MoSSBODS occurring at position 4, now occupied by GWS, and the first for MoSHBODS occurring at position 6, now occupied by Essendon after a four-spot climb.

The only other big climbers were the Western Bulldogs on MoSSBODS. The Dogs rose three spots on that System into 5th as St Kilda, Richmond and Geelong, who were all above them pre-round, dropped Rating Points.

No team fell by more than two spots on either System this week.

At round's end, three teams are ranked three or more places differently by the two Systems:

  • The Western Bulldogs (5th on MoSSBODS and 8th on MoSHBODS)
  • Geelong (8th on MoSSBODS and 5th on MoSHBODS)
  • Essendon (9th on MoSSBODS and 6th on MoSHBODS)

Both Systems now rate Just nine teams as above-average: the Top 6 teams from the competition ladder plus St Kilda, Essendon, and the Western Bulldogs, all of which are currently outside the competition's Top 8.

On Offensive rankings, the only teams moving multiple spots on both Systems this week were St Kilda and West Coast, down 2 spots on both, and Essendon up 3 spots on both. 

Defensively, there were no teams that moved multiple spots on both Systems.

Ratings remain compressed offensively and defensively. On Offence, for MoSSBODS the gap between 3rd and 12th is only 2.0 Scoring Shots while on MoSHBODS the gap between 4th and 13th is only 8.8 points. Defensively, for MoSSBODS the gap between 2nd and 15th is only 3.0 Scoring Shots, while on MoSHBODS the gap between 2nd and 10th is only 6.8 points. It seems very likely that home ground advantage (or what MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS consider Venue Performance) is having an unusually large effect on the competition this season.

Both Systems now agree about the composition and ordering of the Top 3 teams on both offence and defence.

Offensively, they both have the Top 3 teams as Adelaide, Port Adelaide and GWS, while defensively, they both have the Top 3 as Sydney, Port Adelaide and the Western Bulldogs.

The latest round-by-round MoSSBODS Rating journey animation appears below and shows Port Adelaide slightly increasing its lead over Sydney to 0.5 Scoring Shots. Port Adelaide is now 1.5 scoring shots better than Sydney on Offence, and 1.1 scoring shots worse on Defence.

Next let's take a look at the current MoSSBODS Ratings compared with those for every other team in history at the same point in their respective seasons. (Note that we're starting to lose some teams from some prior years in this chart because they did not have a Round 17 in their Home and Away season.)

Adelaide, Port Adelaide and Sydney are now clearly in a group of their own and all have Combined Ratings very much in keeping with those of Grand Finalists from the past at this point in the season. Thereafter, six teams - GWS, the Western Bulldogs, St Kilda, Richmond, Geelong, and Essendon - form their own group, separated by just 1.2 Scoring Shots in terms of Combined Rating, and the only other teams whose Combined Ratings are above zero.

West Coast, Collingwood, and Melbourne, who all have Combined Ratings in the -0.2 to -0.6 range, are the only other teams with Combined Ratings higher than that of at least one previous Grand Finalist at the end of Round 17.

ChiPS AND MARS

ChiPS re-ranked 11 teams this week, five of them by multiple places, the biggest movers being Essendon, up 3 spots into 7th, and St Kilda, down 5 spots into 13th.

MARS re-ranked 10 teams, but only three by multiple spots, the largest adjustment coming for St Kilda, which dropped 3 spots into 11th.

ChiPS changed only one of the Top 3 teams, moving Sydney into 3rd at the expense of GWS, while MARS left the occupants of the Top 3 unchanged but switched Port Adelaide into 2nd, slipping Sydney into 3rd. That left the two Systems with identical Top 3s.

Across the four Systems it remains the case that the only teams appearing in the Top 5 for all of them are Adelaide, GWS, Port Adelaide and Sydney.

As well, Sydney, Port Adelaide and the Kangaroos find themselves ranked a couple of places or more higher by all four Systems compared to their competition ladder rankings, while the opposite is true for Geelong and Fremantle, their ladder spots two places or more higher than their rankings on the four Systems.

The largest disparities in the rankings across the four Systems are now for Melbourne (ranked 7th on MARS and 12th on MoSSBODS), West Coast (ranked 6th on MARS and 12th on MoSHBODS), St Kilda (ranked 6th on MoSSBODS and 13th on ChiPS), Essendon (ranked 6th on MoSHBODS and 12th on MARS), and the Western Bulldogs (ranked 5th on MoSSBODS and 10th on ChiPS). No other team is ranked more than four places differently across the Systems.

It's interesting that the teams for which the disparities are greatest - Melbourne, West Coast, St Kilda, Essendon, and the Western Bulldogs - are the teams expected to finish mid to lower-mid table by the majority of the Systems. Right now, we seem to have a much better idea of how to order the good and the poor teams, but less of an idea about how to order the rest.