2014 - Team Ratings After Round 23

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Only four team's ChiPS' Ranking changed as a consequence of Round 23 results, none of them by more than a single place.

Adelaide snatched 5th place from the Roos while Carlton snatched 11th from the Pies to leave the competition with 10 teams Rated over 1,003.

Just one team, Fremantle, enters September with a string of more than two Ratings gains, the Dockers having assembled a run of four that leaves it Ranked 4th, the same as its ladder position. The Western Bulldogs finished the home-and-away season with the competition's only three-game Rating decline, ultimately finishing Ranked 14th with a Rating of just over 984.

The Dogs, in fact, started the season with the same ChiPS Ranking, unlike:

  • Sydney, who finished 2nd, up 5 places
  • Port Adelaide, who finished 3rd, up 7 places
  • Geelong, who finished 7th, down 5 places,
  • West Coast, who finished 9th, up 6 places
  • Collingwood, who finished 12th, down 8 places, and
  • St Kilda, who finished 18th, down 5 places

Comparing ChiPS' and MARS' Ratings reveals major differences only for Geelong, who are Ranked 7th by ChiPS and 4th by MARS, while comparing ChiPS' and MARS' Rankings to the competition ladder reveals equally significant differences only for:

  • Adelaide, Ranked 5th by ChiPS, 7th by MARS, and 10th on the competition ladder
  • Geelong, Ranked 7th by ChiPS, 4th by MARS, and 3rd on the competition ladder

Introducing the opinions of the Colley, Massey and ODM Systems adds little controversy to team Rankings.

None of these Systems, in fact, Rank any team more than two places differently from their final competition ladder ranking.

ODM, however, does Rank the Offensive or Defensive abilities of 11 teams more than three places differently to their ladder positions:

  • Adelaide, Ranked 3rd offensively but 10th on the ladder
  • Carlton, Ranked 9th offensively but 13th on the ladder
  • Collingwood, Ranked 14th offensively but 11th on the ladder
  • Essendon, Ranked 4th defensively, 12th offensively but 7th on the ladder
  • Geelong, Ranked 6th offensively and defensively but 3rd on the ladder
  • GWS, Ranked 13th offensively but 16th on the ladder
  • Hawthorn, Ranked 5th defensively but 2nd on the ladder
  • Melbourne, Ranked 12th defensively but 17th on the ladder
  • Port Adelaide, Ranked 2nd offensively but 5th on the ladder
  • Richmond, Ranked 11th offensively but 8th on the ladder
  • Sydney, Ranked 4th offensively but 1st on the ladder

Finally, comparing the simple predictive accuracy of the various Rating Systems relative to MARS shows that:

  • ChiPS finishes the home-and-away season three tips clear of MARS, down by a single tip
  • Massey and ODM Offence finish the home-and-away season 10 tips behind MARS
  • ODM Defence finishes the home-and-away season 12 tips behind MARS
  • ODM finishes the home-and-away season 13 tips behind MARS
  • Colley finishes the home-and-away season 17 tips behind MARS

So, in terms of predictive accuracy, MARS is good but ChiPS is marginally better. After that, Massey is probably next best, though the gap to MARS is substantial.