2014 - Round 23 Results : A Loss But Still A Profit
/While a loss wasn't the ideal way to finish the home-and-away season, with only nine more games on which any of the Funds can be profligate, the fact that the loss was a relatively small one virtually assures Investors of a profit for season 2014.
The Head-to-Head Fund missed out on its lone Pies wager, which looked a reasonable bet until about the middle of the second quarter when the Hawks ran away with the contest, while the Line Fund made its first loss for three weeks after turning in a 2 and 3 performance. It had grounds for feeling aggrieved, however, missing out on the Fremantle result where it was giving 13.5 start having watched the Dockers give up almost all of the 40-point lead that it held early in the final term.
For the Margin Fund, the luck story was a mixed one. It was, perhaps, fortunate to land the Roos' result where the final margin was at the extreme end of the 30 to 39 point bucket on which it had wagered, but it was at least equally as unfortunate to miss out on the Cats result where a late goal nudged the margin just outside the desired range.
In total, the Head-to-Head Fund shed just under 3c, the Line Fund did the same, while the Margin Fund dropped 5c, which together knocked 3.3c off the value of the Recommended Portfolio. It remains up by 11.7c on the season.
TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
The Heuristic Tipsters, BKB aside, make their predictions only during the home-and-away season, so this week marks the end of their contribution for the season. Not that this contribution has been worth much this year. Silhouette finished highest, tipping 130.5 from 198 (66%) - which, to be fair, is still considerably better than chance and would be considered an acceptable performance in many office tipping competitions.
For the week, the Head-to-Head Tipsters averaged 6.7 from 9 (well, with the drawn game, effectively from 8.5), the best of them scoring 7.5, and the worst, Home Sweet Home, snagging 4.5. The three Win-based Tipsters were all amongst those bagging the maximum and, as a result, all drew level with Combo_7 in second place on the MoS Leaderboard. Bookie_9 remains in the lead, still three tips clear of the field.
Combo_7's Mean Absolute Prediction Error (MAPE) for the round of 21.8 points per game was good enough for third for the week and left it atop the MoS Leaderboard though now by only 17 points. Bookie_LPSO, whose MAPE for the round was the second best, remains in second place overall, while Bookie_9 remains in third. The all-Predictor MAPE for the week was 24.2 points per game.
RSMP_Simple, last year's runner-up to RSMP_Weighted, still lurks in 4th spot on the Leaderboard and, with the margin to Combo_7 just 89 points, is not without hope.
Eleven Margin Predictors still have profitable Line betting records, and three more have tipped at better-than-chance, leaving just three Predictors with sub-50% records for the season.
Seven Margin Predictors also have profitable SuperMargin betting records (looking only at predictions of home team wins or draws), though neither Combo_NN_2 nor Bookie_9 can make that claim. Hence, the parlous performance of the Margin Fund.
C_Prob stood tallest amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors this week, its positive performance leaving it second on the MoS Leaderboard and only very slightly behind Bookie-OE in first. Given the sterling performance of C_Prob it's quite a mystery to me why C_Marg has fared so poorly this year and why ChiPS' wagering recommendations have been so highly unprofitable. I will definitely be analysing this soon.
The Line Fund algorithm's probability score for the week was almost exactly zero and left it with a marginally negative average probability score for the season.
