2014 - Team Ratings After Round 13

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ChiPS altered the Ranking of eight teams this week, elevating Fremantle, Geelong, Melbourne and GWS, and demoting Collingwood, the Roos, the Lions and St Kilda. The Saints are now, after seven consecutive rounds of Ratings decline, Ranked 18th by ChiPS. MARS still has them Ranked 17th, but one feels as though it's only a matter of time.

Other teams apparently on a Ratings Point slippery slide are Richmond, who've shed points for three successive weeks, and West Coast who've done the same for the same period of time. Sydney meantime, despite defeating competition-leading Port Adelaide by 4 points, shed Points this week for the first time since Round 4, and for only the fourth time this season.

Fremantle and the Lions are the teams with Ratings momentum, both having gained Points over the four most-recent rounds. GWS has assembled a three-game streak.

ChiPS and MARS now agree to within one place the Ranking of every team in the competition except Richmond, which ChiPS Ranks 9th and MARS 11th. That high level of agreement is reinforced by a visual inspection of the Ratings charts by team of the two Systems.

Including next, Massey, Colley and ODM reveals ongoing general agreement by all five Systems about the Ranking of the dozen-and-a-half teams. Colley continues to be the major dissenter, Ranking the Lions, Cats and Suns notably higher, and the Hawks and Tigers notably lower than the other Systems.

Colley's Ranking of Richmond is particularly different from the Rankings of the other Systems, though it is more in keeping with the Tigers' position on the competition ladder, as is indicated by the table at right.

More generally this table shows that Colley's Rankings are more highly aligned with the competition ladder, as evidenced by the +0.97 correlation between Colley Rankings and competition ladder position. As well, no team's Colley Ranking is more than two places different from its place on the competition ladder whereas, for example:

  • ChiPS ranks Gold Coast 13th though they sit 8th on the ladder, and ranks Richmond 9th though they sit 15th,
  • MARS ranks Gold Coast 12th though they sit 8th on the ladder, ranks Richmond 11th though they sit 15th, and ranks Port Adelaide 4th though they sit 1st,
  • Massey ranks Gold Coast 11th though they sit 8th on the ladder, ranks Richmond 12th though they sit 15th, and ranks West Coast 8th though they sit 11th,
  • ODM ranks Gold Coast 11th though they sit 8th on the ladder, ranks Port Adelaide 4th though they sit 1st, ranks Richmond 12th though they sit 15th, and ranks West Coast 8th though they sit 11th.

Looking at ODM's Defensive and Offensive Rankings reveals that:

  • Carlton, Hawthorn, Geelong, Gold Coast, GWS and Port Adelaide are considered stronger offensively than defensively,
  • Collingwood, Essendon, Fremantle and Melbourne are considered stronger defensively than offensively,
  • Essendon's and GWS' offensive abilities have been trending down,
  • The Roos' and the Suns' offensive abilities have been trending up,
  • St Kilda's and West Coast's defensive abilities have been trending down,
  • Melbourne's defensive abilities have been trending up, and
  • Sydney's offensive and defensive abilities have been trending up.

Finally, we see that, in terms of predictive accuracy across the season:

  • ChiPS retains a 3 tip lead over MARS
  • Massey trails MARS by 4 tips
  • Tips based solely on ODM's Defensive Rankings trails MARS by 5 tips
  • ODM trails MARS by 10 tips
  • Colley and tips based solely on ODM's Offensive Rankings trails MARS by 12 tips