2012 Round 23 Results : We Persist

Normally, I keep whatever else is happening in my life out of MAFL. I figure that the people who visit here come because they've an interest in footy and maybe in statistics too, so the stuff that I post here should be about one or the other, or both, and not really about anything else.

But late on Thursday my Dad, after a long stay in hospital, died suddenly, and it doesn't feel right for me to post tonight without recognising the huge influence he's had on me, not least in terms of what you read here every week. If anyone's to blame for my love of sports, for my interest in punting, and for instilling in me the importance of doing what you do to the best of your ability and to keep striving to do it better, it's him. My willingness to spend the ridiculous amounts of time that I do thinking about, posting to and maintaining this site, to continue year after year seeking simple yet powerful ways to summarise and model footy stats, and to be ready to have a punt on what I reckon I've learned, is very much a reflection of him. I'll miss him tremendously, but I'll always have the love of sports and that perfectionist streak that he's given me. I don't think he'd have wanted me not to post tonight.

This week Investors saw yet another small gain in the Portfolios, which climbed about 2.4c thanks entirely to the Head-to-Head and Line Funds and not at all to the Margin Fund. The Head-to-Head Fund landed one of two wagers, enough to lift it by about 4.5c to leave it down about 9c on the season, while the Line Fund snared four of six to climb 8c and attain break-even status; the Margin Fund went 0 for 6 to continue its horror run (which now stands at 30), shedding another 15c to be down 65c on the season. That's such a long way from the 10c it was up when the run started.

In total, Overall Portfolios are now down about 15.5c on the season, with almost 85% of that loss attributable to the Margin Fund.

But for the Tigers' draw with Port Adelaide, many of the Head-to-Head Tipsters would have tipped the card this weekend. As it was, many scored 8.5 from 9, lifting the all-Tipster average for the week to 7.9. The week's worst performances belonged to Home Sweet Home and Easily Impressed II, each scoring only 5.5.

These scores leave H2H_Unadj_10 as the official winner of MAFL Head-to-Head Tipping this year with a score of 156.5 from 198 (79%), one tip ahead of eight other Tipsters and two tips ahead of BKB, the Tipster based on the TAB Bookmaker's pre-game favourite. As regular MAFL readers know, it's always cause for celebration when you beat the TAB Bookmaker in anything over an extended period.

The all-Predictor average MAPE for the round was just 20.15 points per game, an average so low that it allowed three Margin Predictors to finish the home-and-away season with sub-30 MAPEs, and three more to finish within one-tenth of a point per game of doing so. Best for the week was ProPred_7 with 17.62 points per game while worst was Combo_NN_2 with 27.10, a result sufficient to relegate it to last place on the Leaderboard.

That Leaderboard is still headed by Bookie_3, now on 29.34 points per game, with Combo_7 still in 2nd and with H2H_Unadj_3 snatching 3rd as the H2H family elbowed Bookie_9 down into a very unfamiliar 7th place.

Strong margin prediction this week once again led to strong line betting performances with the all-Predictor average coming in at 5.7 from 9 to leave all but three predictors - Combo_7 and the two neural-network based Predictors - with season-long prediction rates above 50%.

Best SuperMargin wagering performances belonged to Bookie Actual (which uses the points start in the line market to select its bucket for each game), Bookie_3 and Combo_7, which all chose the right bucket in two games. The H2H family managed only "one" collect this week, to go with the 30-plus other collects they've each had this season, which has seen these Predictors finish the home-and-away season with ROIs of between 14 and 36%. For no other Predictor is it possible to finagle a positive ROI, even through remaining selectively deaf to their opinions when they foretell of a Home or of an Away team victory.

Head-to-Head Probability Predictors also scored well this week, all registering positive probability scores, best amongst them ProPred, which nevertheless remains last on the Leaderboard, albeit with a very creditable +0.231 average.

The Line Fund algorithm also returned a positive probability score, a performance that it's now achieved in five of the last six rounds.