For the next in our series of season-in-review pieces, I thought we'd take a look at how each of the Funds and the Recommended Portfolio has fared wagering on each of the teams.
On the left, I've shown the performance as bar charts, each with a range of -55% to +55% (the blue line is at 0); on the right, I've shown the equivalent numbers.
Most Funds and the Recommended Portfolio made a small profit on Crows-wagering this season, though Chi-squared did manage to time its wagers to produce a smallish loss.
New Heritage read the Lions' performances best of all and rose by nearly 8c on the strength of Lions-based wagering. Prudence eked out a small gain, but Hope, Chi-squared and Line Redux all made losses, which meant that the Recommended Portfolio made an overall small loss.
Carlton were one of only two teams that brought pestilence to all who wagered upon her. Hope and Line Redux were smart enough to completely ignore the Blues, but Prudence and, especially, New Heritage and Chi-squared foundered upon the Blues' rocky form. Consequently, the Recommended Portfolio registered a loss from Blues betting - only one of three losses that it registered on teams making the final 8.
So far, only Prudence has failed to profit from the Pies' successful season. For New Heritage, the Pies have generated the largest return of any team, and for the Recommended Portfolio they're currently the fifth most profitable team.
Wagering on the Dons this year has been all about timing, and Hope's really had it, Line Redux has had it a little, and the rest - Chi-squared especially - haven't had it at all. For the Recommended Portfolio, Essendon has been one of only six unprofitable teams.
Though they've not pleased their fans much this year, the Dockers have certainly pleased Investors. Every Fund has cranked out a profit wagering on them, Hope most of all, making Freo the third most profitable team for those with the Recommended Portfolio.
Geelong is another team that has been bounteous for all who've had faith, which for MAFL has been every Fund except Hope. New Heritage has been particularly astute in pouncing on the Cats, generating almost 12c of incremental value from their victories.
For New Heritage, Prudence and Hope, the Hawks have been a source of modest profit, but for Chi-squared and (very much) for Line Redux, the opposite has been true. In fact, Line Redux has destroyed almost one-half of its initial value on the shoals of Hawks' line results. As a consequence, the Hawks have produced the worst performance of any team for Investors with the Recommended Portfolio, destroying almost 11c worth of initial value.
The Roos have generally been a team of little import as far as MAFL wagering has been concerned. New Heritage and Line Redux have squandered a little on them, but Prudence, Hope and Chi-squared have profited a little, resulting in a small gain from the Roos for the Recommended Portfolio.
Traditionally, MAFL Investors have revelled in those teams that have managed to produce the occasional, lucrative, at-home victory, which is exactly what the Dees have done this year. Only Hope missed out on the party, while, in contrast, Chi-squared benefited to the tune of over 27c. Overall, Melbourne generated the largest value of any team for Investors with the Recommended Portfolio, contributing almost 9c of incremental value.
Port are another team that have disappointed fans but thrilled Investors. Every Fund made money wagering on them, Chi-squared and Line Redux most of all, making them the second most profitable of all the teams for the Recommended Portfolio.
As far as Investors are concerned the Tigers couldn't even time their wins advantageously this season. Every Fund lost money wagering on them bar the Hope Fund, which avoided loss by avoiding wagering on them. With a net loss of almost 8c, the Tigers were the second greatest value destroyers for the Recommended Portfolio of any team. Chi-squared, in particular, found them to be an unprofitable addiction.
Aside from a brief period late in the home-and-away season it's been hard to place losing wagers on the Saints, as every Fund but Hope has discovered. The Recommended Portfolio owes 5c worth of its gain to the performances of the Saints.
Only Prudence and Line Redux escaped the cash vortex that was Swan-betting this season. Consequently, the Recommended Portfolio dropped over 7c thanks to the Swans, the third-highest loss amongst all the teams.
Hope and Line Redux timed their investments in the Eagles far better than any other of the Funds, so well in fact that they were able to cover the losses from New Heritage, Prudence and Chi-squared and so create a small net profit for Investors with the Recommended Portfolio.
The Dogs have been one of only three teams on which every Fund has wagered and returned a profit, though in Chi-squared's case the profit is so minuscule that it must be measured with a microscope. Overall, the Recommended Portfolio owes almost 4c of its incremental to the efforts of the Dogs.