Another Week Goes to Script

It's taken two weeks, six games and two remarkable comebacks to give Investors a perfect finals record and recoup all of the losses they suffered in Round 22.

This weekend, the respectively comfortable and miraculous wins of the Dogs and the Pies cranked New Heritage up 9%, Prudence up 1.5%, and Line Redux up 4.5%, elevating the Recommended Portfolio by 3% and the other Portfolios by between 3% and 9%.

That leaves the Recommended Portfolio up a tick over 13% on the season, and the other Portfolios up by amounts ranging from 16% to 34%, which surely means that only a suicidal wagering flurry from New Heritage or Chi-squared could drag any of the Portfolios back into loss over the remainder of the season.

Since we're nearing the end of the season it's time to start reviewing some of the broader trends we've witnessed this year, starting with a look at how the Funds have performed relative to the expectations I set in the Fund Profiles document I issued pre-season.

First, consider New Heritage, which is up almost 34% on the season. It's bet on 53% of games, a little less than I expected, won 74% of those bets, which is at the upper end of my expectations, made bets averaging 8.7% of the Fund, slightly higher than I predicted, and recorded an ROI of 4%, which is at the upper limit of my predictions. Gotta be happy about all that.

Next, Prudence. It's also showing a profit for the season - almost 16% - and its activity and performance levels are all within the advertised ranges. Two votes for happiness.

Then, Hope. It's up a whopping 54% even though its win rate is slightly lower than I'd expected. Bet frequency and average bet size have both been within forecast ranges, but ROI has been a massive 40.5%, shattering the upper limit of my most optimistic forecasts. I'll forgive a Fund that outlays less than I expect if it can generate returns like that from what it does outlay. Happiness 3-0.

Line Redux has overcome a mid-season slump that saw it drop briefly below 79c at the end of Round 12 before rebounding to reach its current value of just under $1.15, its highest value for the season so far. The Fund has wagered a little less often, won a little less frequently and wagered slightly more on average than I anticipated, all of which has produced an ROI below the minimum of my indicated range. Still, a double-digit profit is unsneezeworthy, so add one more to the happiness tally.

Lastly, and undoubtedly leastly, we come to the Chi-squared Fund. As I type this, Chi has only moments ago quietly vacated the space at the left of my feet, clipping his way down the wooden floorboards of our hallway to find a bed somewhere else. I suppose if any living thing's going to sense negative energy it'd be something named Chi wouldn't it?

This year he bet about as often and about as much per bet as I'd foreseen, but won considerably less often than I'd budgeted for, leaving him down over 43% on the season and, consequently, with an ROI on the red side of bad.

Essendon, Sydney and Richmond were all significant contributors to Chi's demise. The Dons cost him almost 25c in winning just 1 of 3 wagers; Richmond cost him another 23c by winning just 1 of 4 wagers; and the Swans lopped off about another 27c by also winning just 1 of 4 wagers.

A consolation point then for unhappiness but still an overwhelming victory for the punting pleasure of all Investors.

Moving on to tipping, ELO maintained its perfect finals tipping record with 2 from 2 this weekend, taking it to 123 from 182 (68%) for the season. BKB and Chi managed only 1 from 2, which leaves BKB at 122 (67%) and Chi at 117 (64%), still creditable performances in each case.

On Line Betting, ELO also sports a perfect 6 from 6 finals record, putting it now up by 12.89 units for the season on level-stake wagering. Chi registered a blank this week and is now just 1 from 6 for the finals. It's not been a happy year for those following a line betting strategy based on Chi's margin tips (unless such a strategy had a strong contrarian element).