Pies To Spring the Upset?

It's that time of year when I wonder whether or not to ignore home ground advantage.

This week's Geelong v Pies clash is, as you probably know, being played at the MCG. Geelong, as the team finishing higher on the ladder, are the AFL's notional home team. But the G is Collingwood's home ground, not Geelong's (although it must be beginning to feel like a second home for the Cats and their supporters).

In the end, I've stuck with tradition and coded for this as a home game for the purposes of the MAFL models.

As a consequence of this coding, all the Funds, New Heritage excluded, can consider only Pies wagers. As it turns out, all of them, including New Heritage if only barely, have accepted the invitation to punt on a Pie.

Across the two games, New Heritage has 2 wagers totalling around 11.5% of the Fund, though only the one on St Kilda is of any consequence. Prudence also has two wagers, totalling almost 8.5% of the Fund in its case and biased slightly towards the Saints in size if not in risk.

Hope has a single wager of around 5% on the Pies, Chi-squared also has just a single wager on the Pies, though his is for 15.5% of the Fund (the phrase "death or glory" springs immediately, unbidden, to mind).

Line Redux has a 5% wager on each of the Saints, giving 17.5 start, and the Pies, receiving 15.5.

Here's what the Ready Reckoner resembles:

On tipping, we've unanimity in support of the Saints, but a 2-1 split for the Pies in the other game.

For line betting, Chi and ELO are both on the Saints and the Pies.