MatterOfStats 2014 : Team Dashboard for Round 15

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Only three of the teams currently sitting in Finals positions have winning streaks that extend beyond a single game, if they've a winning streak at all. Four of the teams in that Top 8 have lost two of their last three games, and another, Geelong, has only a 5 and 4 record in its most-recent 9 games.

Based on the MatterOfStats Win Production Function, three teams have won 1 or more games fewer than would be expected based on their Scoring Statistics:

  • Carlton. who've won 1 game fewer
  • West Coast, who've won 2 games fewer
  • Richmond, who've won 2.5 games fewer

Three teams have, conversely, won 1 on more games more than would be expected:

  • St Kilda, who've won 1.3 games more
  • Brisbane Lions, who've won 2 games more
  • Geelong, who've won 2.1 games more

MatterOfStats 2014 : Team Dashboard for Round 14

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The top 11 teams on the competition ladder now all have percentages greater than 100, while four of the bottom five teams have percentages under 80. Seven teams have won four or fewer of the 13 games they've played, which means that an 8 and 5 season record is currently necessary to place a team in the top 8. As well, the top 3 teams have registered almost 21% of the points scored during the season - almost exactly the same proportion as registered by the bottom 5 teams combined.

All of which suggests that, perhaps, the early-season hopes for a highly-competitive 2014 are not entirely panning out.

MatterOfStats 2014 : Team Dashboard for Round 12

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All seven of the teams now sitting atop the competition ladder collected wins this weekend, and six of them have a winning streak extending back to at least the two most recent games.

More remarkable perhaps is the fact that all of the teams in the top 11 places have percentages greater than 100, yet four of them have not registered more goals than they've registered behinds and two more of them have a barely positive surplus.

Equally remarkable is the fact that Melbourne, currently, has the best record of all the teams on the basis of Opponent Scoring Shot conversion, while their conquerors of the current round, Collingwood, have the worst Own Scoring Shot conversion rate of all 18 teams.

MatterOfStats 2014 : Team Dashboard for Round 11

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By my, crude assessment, the average impact of the bye on teams this season has been a wash, with nine teams winning and nine losing in the week immediately following their bye. Three of the teams that lost currently sit in the Top 8 on the competition ladder, and six sit outside the Top 8. Winning and losing, it seems, has been more about pure ability than the disruptive or beneficial influence of the week off.

Speaking of the competition ladder, according to the Win Production Function used here at MatterOfStats, five teams have won about 1 game or more this season than their Scoring Shot Data would suggest they're entitled to have won:

  • Geelong +1.9 games
  • St Kilda +1.5 games
  • Gold Coast +1.3 games
  • Brisbane Lions +0.8 games
  • Port Adelaide +0.8 games

Five more teams have lost about 1 game or more than they "should" have:

  • West Coast -2.2 games
  • Richmond -1.7 games
  • Hawthorn -1.5 games
  • Fremantle -0.9 games
  • Sydney -0.9 games

The eight remaining teams are all within one-half a game of what they could reasonably expect given their Scoring Shot performances. Again this year then, the Win Production Function seems to be doing a reasonable job of predicting the link between scoring and success.

In winning its final term against Carlton this weekend, the Brisbane Lions ensured that every team has now won every quarter at least once during the season. No team has won any single quarter more than 80% of the time, this result having been achieved by Geelong and Sydney in 1st Quarters, Hawthorn in 2nd Quarters and, remarkably, by Port Adelaide in 1st, 3rd and 4th Quarters.

MatterOfStats 2014 : Team Dashboard for Round 10

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Just a handful of comments this week based on the Quarter-by-Quarter analysis:

  • Brisbane: c'mon, surely you can win a final term sometime this season
  • Port Adelaide: congratulations on your 3rd and 4th term performances; now work on your 1st and, especially, your 2nd term performances
  • Geelong: enough with the long half-time lunches, time to lift your Q3 performances
  • Kangaroos: by the way, 1st halves count too
  • Sydney: 1st quarters do not a season make


MatterOfStats 2014 : Team Dashboard for Round 9

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For this week's Team Dashboard commentary I'm going to focus on the rank correlations between the teams' ranking on various of the metrics on the Team Dashboard and their ranking on the competition ladder (using my approach to ordering teams that have played different number of games, which is to calculate competition points secured per game played).

These rank correlations are as follows:

  • Ladder Position and Scoring Shots Created per Game : +0.88
  • Ladder Position and Scoring Shots Conceded per Game : +0.71
  • Ladder Position and Own Scoring Shots Conversion Rate : +0.09
  • Ladder Position and Opponent Scoring Shots Conversion Rate : +0.36
  • Ladder Position and Q1 Performances : +0.84
  • Ladder Position and Q2 Performances : +0.59
  • Ladder Position and Q3 Performances : +0.59
  • Ladder Position and Q4 Performances : +0.68

In an historical context these correlations are generally quite low, most startlingly so for the correlation between Ladder Position and Own Scoring Shot Conversion, which at +0.09 is about as close to perfectly uncorrelated as you can get.

Six teams in particular are driving this low correlation, three from the bottom half of the Ladder:

  • Western Bulldogs who are 12th on the Ladder and 2nd on the Conversion metric
  • GWS who are 17th on the Ladder and 6th on the metric
  • Brisbane Lions who are 18th on the Ladder and 5th on the metric

... and three from the top half of the Ladder:

  • Geelong who are 3rd on the Ladder and 16th on the metric
  • Kangaroos who are 6th on the Ladder and 17th on the metric
  • Collingwood who are 7th on the Ladder and 18th on the metric

Scoring Shot creation has been the most important activity for teams so far this season (hence the +0.88 correlation with Ladder position). Converting those scoring shots has been of far less importance because winning teams have, on average, generated almost 8 more scoring shots per game than their opponents (27.8 shots versus 19.9). Using these averages we can calculate that a winning team registering 27.8 scoring shots and converting at only 50% will prevail over a losing team registering 19.9 scoring shots and converting at a much higher 77%.

MatterOfStats 2014 : Team Dashboard for Round 8

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The latest Team Dashboard appears below. Please note that I rank teams firstly on the basis of points scored per game played then on percentage, which will mean that I rank some teams differently from the official AFL Ladder.

The only comment I'll make this week is that we're still waiting for the Lions to win a final term, for Geelong to lose a 1st term, and for Port Adelaide to lose a 3rd term.



MatterOfStats 2014 : Team Dashboard for Round 7

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With seven rounds now completed, time then I think to once again review the more substantial differences between each team's ladder position and its ranking on the various Dashboard metrics:

  • Adelaide are 11th on the ladder but 5th in terms of Own Scoring Shots per Game, and 3rd in Quarters 2 and 3
  • Brisbane Lions are 18th on the ladder but 6th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion
  • Carlton are 16th on the ladder but 9th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion and 7th in Quarter 4s
  • Collingwood are 4th on the ladder but 18th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion and 17th in Quarter 4s
  • Essendon are 10th on the ladder but 5th on Opponent Scoring Shots per Game. They're also 5th in Quarter 1s, 18th in Quarter 2s, and 16th in Quarter 4s
  • Fremantle are 6th on the ladder but 2nd on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion and 1st in Quarter 4s
  • Geelong are 3rd on the ladder but 14th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion, 15th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion, and 10th in Quarter 3s
  • Gold Coast are 5th on the ladder but 11th on Opponent Scoring Shots per Game, 11th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion, 10th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion, and 13th in Quarter 2s
  • Hawthorn are 1st on the ladder but ... no worse than 3rd on any metric
  • Kangaroos are 8th on the ladder but 14th on Own Scoring Shots per Game, 16th in Quarter 1s, and 14th in Quarter 2s
  • Melbourne are 17th on the ladder but 1st on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion (I figure that teams tire when they're getting so many shots ...)
  • Port Adelaide are 2nd on the ladder but 7th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion
  • Richmond are 13th on the ladder but 5th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion, 8th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion, and 6th in Quarter 4s
  • St Kilda are 12th on the ladder but 18th on Quarter 1s
  • Sydney are 7th on the ladder but 12th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion and 12th in Quarter 4s
  • West Coast are 9th on the ladder but 1st on Opponent Scoring Shots per Game, 16th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion and 16th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion
  • Western Bulldogs are 15th on the ladder but 3rd on Own Scoring Shot Conversion and 6th in Quarter 2s

MatterOfStats 2014 : Team Dashboard for Round 6

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The Suns have now risen as far as 6th place on the competition ladder despite having a sub-100 percentage, and Essendon have fallen to 12th with a percentage near 105.

In other curiosities, the teams currently in 4th and 5th spots (Collingwood and the Kangaroos) have both scored fewer goals than the team in 16th (Carlton) and fewer than eight other teams below them on the ladder.

What's more, Collingwood, who sit in 4th place on the ladder, have the 2nd-worst conversion rate of all teams, while the Dogs, who sit in 15th, have the 2nd-best conversion rate, and the Lions, who sit in last position, have the 4th-best conversion rate.

The Brisbane Lions are the only team to have failed to win a specific quarter in six attempts. In fact, they've done this for two quarters, having 0 from 6 records in 3rd and in 4th quarters. Conversely, Port Adelaide are the only team to have won all 6 of any quarter, this being the case for 3rd quarters in their games where they've this perfect record. In those quarters they have, in aggregate, outscored their opponents by more than 2:1.

MatterOfStats 2014 : Team Dashboard for Round 4

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The latest Team Dashboard includes the following pieces of information:

  • Carlton have scored more behinds than any of the teams currently sitting inside the Top 8. But, they've also scored nine fewer goals than any of those teams.
  • Collingwood are the only team in the top 10, and one of only two teams in the top 15 (the other being the Gold Coast), to have registered more behinds than goals.
  • Melbourne have conceded fewer goals than the nine teams sitting directly above them on the competition ladder. They've also scored 10 goals fewer than any other team in the competition, however, having racked up less than 2 goals per quarter on average so far this season.
  • The Brisbane Lions have recorded almost 15 fewer scoring shots per game than have their opponents and are the only team to have conceded more than 30 scoring shots per game.
  • Port Adelaide and Hawthorn are the only teams to have recorded more than 30 scoring shots per game.
  • The Western Bulldogs have the best scoring shot conversion rate of any team, their 65.4% marginally superior to Hawthorn's 62.9%. The Dogs have registered only 19.5 scoring shots per game though to the Hawks' 31.0.
  • The Brisbane Lions are still yet to record their first winning quarter and have been outscored by more than 2:1 by their opponents in 2nd and 3rd quarters. No other team has a sub-50 percentage for any single quarter.
  • Collingwood have outscored their opponents, on average, in only a single quarter, the 4th and even then only barely. Regardless, they sit in 9th place on the competition ladder.
  • Fremantle struggle only in 1st terms where they've won just 38% of the time and registered a 76 percentage. They outscore their opponents by over 2:1 in 3rd terms, however, the best percentage for this term of any team.
  • Hawthorn outscore their opponents by almost 3:1 in 2nd terms, their 273 being the highest percentage for any team in any single quarter.
  • Sydney outscore their opponents by about 3:2 in 1st terms but are outscored by their opponents in every other quarter, especially the 4th.


MatterOfStats 2014 : Team Dashboard for Round 3

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The latest Team Dashboard reveals that, among other things:

  • Adelaide's opponents have converted their Scoring Shots at an amazing 64.4% so far this season
  • The Bulldogs' opponents have performed almost equally as well, converting at 64%
  • The Brisbane Lions are yet to win a quarter this season
  • Adelaide are yet to win a 1st or a 4th Quarter
  • Carlton, Melbourne and Sydney are yet to win a 2nd Quarter
  • The Bulldogs are yet to win a quarter in the 2nd Half
  • GWS have outscored their opponents by 2.6:1 in 4th Quarters
  • Collingwood have been outscored by their opponents 2:1 in 1st Quarters
  • West Coast have the best 1st, 3rd and 4th Quarter records of any team

MatterOfStats 2014 : Team Dashboard for Round 2

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It's too early in the season to be attempting to discern meaningful trends or statistics from the MatterOfStats Team Dashboard, but a handful of results are at least interesting:

  • Collingwood has started the season with an appalling conversion rate having kicked 17.33, superior only to Melbourne's 10.21
  • In contrast, the Dogs have made the most of the very few opportunities they've had, kicking 19.9 in their two games so far. St Kilda's 25.13 is almost as good in terms of conversion rate and, more importantly, has been enough to land them two wins to the Dogs' none.
  • Fremantle's opponents have struggled to convert their chances registering a combined 10.25 across the two games.
  • What's hurt the Bulldogs is that their opponents have not struggled at all in converting their chances having kicked 33.19 so far this season
  • The Brisbane Lions have yet to win a quarter all season, while the Eagles have yet to lose one.
  • Sydney have won the 1st quarter in both of their games but lost the three remaining quarters both times.


MatterOfStats 2014 : Team Dashboard for Round 1

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The Team Dashboard after Round 1 is below. Most of the content is, I hope, self-evident, but here's a brief overview of the Dashboard's contents.

Competition Ladder

This section provides most of the information that you'll find in a standard, extended competition ladder, including the goals and behinds scored and conceded by each team. It also shows the teams W/D/L performance for every game of the season.

Scoring Shot Data

This section, as its name suggests, focusses on the scoring statistics for each team and includes the average number of scoring shots recorded and conceded, the conversion rate - goals / (goals + behinds) - achieved and allowed, and the ranking of each team on each of these metrics.

The far right of this section compares each team's winning percentage with that which we'd expect based on that team's scoring behaviour. It uses the Win Production Function described in this blog post from 2011.

Quarter By Quarter Performance

This final section provides details about each team's winning percentage and scoring percentage (points scored divided by points conceded multiplied by 100) in each quarter of the game taken separately.

Team rankings for each quarter are also provided, these based firstly on winning percentages, with scoring percentage used to break ties.



MAFL 2013 : Team Dashboard for Round 23

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Before providing the final Team Dashboard of the season I want to present a summary view of each team's performance this season, which I've done by creating a bubble chart where the area is proportional to the victory margin in the relevant game and the colour reflects the result from the viewpoint of the Home team.

One aspect of the season that I think this chart makes particularly clear is the general narrowness of the Roos' defeats. To see this, peruse the collection of small, red circles on the row labelled "Kangaroos" and the assemblage of small, green circles - which also denote Roos losses - in the column labelled similarly.

Also highlighted by this chart is the magnitude of many GWS and Melbourne losses and, more subtly, the inequity of the home-and-away clashes that were missed as a consequence of the non all-plays-all home-and-away nature of the AFL draw. Which team wouldn't, for example, want one of those large green circles that proliferate in the columns labelled "GWS" or "Melbourne"?

With that by way of entree, here's the season's final Team Dashboard:

(I've left the Dons in 7th though I realise that, officially, they'll finish 9th.)

The Roos, therefore, have missed out on a place in the Finals despite finishing the season having scored, on average, about 20% more points than their opponents, ranking them 5th amongst all teams, while Port Adelaide have made it after racking up only a bit over 2% more points than they conceded.

Somewhat unusually, half of the teams that have lived to fight another week found themselves on the end of a loss this week, while five of the teams that won't participate in the Finals were victorious. The end of any AFL season is often a curious time ...

At the end of the home-and-away season only two teams have recorded more than two wins fewer than would have been expected based on their scoring shot data and MAFL's Win Production Function: Adelaide, who recorded 2.6 wins fewer, and the Roos, who recorded over 5 wins fewer. No team recorded more than 1.6 wins more than would have been expected, and half of the teams finished within 1 win - plus or minus - of the number we'd have expected.

Hawthorn finished the home-and-away season as the team generating the greatest number of scoring shots per game, while the Dees finished as the team generating the fewest. Fremantle conceded the fewest and GWS the greatest number per game.

Fremantle also recorded the highest scoring shot conversion rate, and Carlton the lowest, while GWS allowed the greatest proportion of scoring shots to be converted to goals and Carlton allowed the smallest proportion - how else could the Blues have hoped to have made the Finals given their own inability to convert?

The Roos were best at 1st Quarters, Sydney at 2nd Quarters, Geelong at 3rd Quarters, and Port Adelaide at 4th Quarters, while worst, respectively, were the Dogs, Dees, Giants and the Saints.

Rank correlations between final ladder position and ranking on the various metrics were as follows:

  • Competition Ladder vs Own Scoring Shot production: +0.78
  • Competition Ladder vs Opponent Scoring Shot production: +0.90
  • Competition Ladder vs Own Conversion rate: +0.52
  • Competition Ladder vs Opponent Conversion rate: +0.29
  • Competition Ladder vs Q1 Performances: +0.76
  • Competition Ladder vs Q2 Performances: +0.95
  • Competition Ladder vs Q3 Performances: +0.74
  • Competition Ladder vs Q4 Performances: +0.56

This year, it seems, success was very much about ensuring that opponent's scoring opportunities were hard to convert and about performing especially well in 2nd terms.

MAFL 2013 : Team Dashboard for Round 22

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Should Port Adelaide defeat Carlton next week and, as some are suggesting might the case, the Dons are excluded from the Finals or choose not to participate, then it's possible we'll have a team, the Brisbane Lions, playing in the Finals with a percentage below 90 and another team, the Roos, not playing despite recording a percentage during the home-and-away season above 120. 

In truth, even if they lose, Carlton would still be favoured to grab any vacated Finals berth however, as the scenario just outlined would require that the Lions draw with or defeat the Cats, which seems unlikely, especially in light of the Lions' near loss to the lowly Dogs this week after leading by over 50 points..

MAFL 2013 : Team Dashboard for Round 20

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It's been a little while since we looked at the strengths and weaknesses of each team in terms of the metrics on the MAFL Team Dashboard, so let's do that this week: 

  • Adelaide, 12th on the ladder, are 17th on Own Conversion rate, but 3rd in final terms
  • Brisbane, 13th on the ladder, are 18th on Own Conversion rate, but 8th on Opponent Conversion rate and in final terms 
  • Carlton, 9th on the ladder, are 13th on Own Conversion rate and in final terms, but 1st on Opponent Conversion rate
  • Collingwood, 5th on the ladder, are 13th on Opponent Conversion rate, but 4th on Opponent Scoring Shots per game
  • Essendon, 7th on the ladder, are 11th on Opponent Conversion rate, but 4th in final terms
  • Fremantle, 4th on the ladder, are 14th on Own Scoring Shots per game, but 1st on Opponent Scoring Shots per game
  • Geelong, 2nd on the ladder, are 16th on Opponent Conversion rate, but 1st on 3rd Quarter performances
  • Hawthorn, 1st on the ladder, are 9th on Opponent Conversion rate, but 1st on Own Scoring Shots per game
  • Kangaroos, 11th on the ladder, are 11th on 3rd Quarter performances (yes, 11th is the worst ranking they have on any metric), but 1st on 1st Quarter performances and on Own Conversion rate
  • Melbourne, 17th on the ladder, are 18th on Own Scoring Shots per game and on 2nd Quarter performances, but 10th on Opponent Conversion rate
  • Port Adelaide, 8th on the ladder, are 15th on Opponent Conversion rate, but 1st in final terms
  • Richmond, 6th on the ladder, are 14th on Own Conversion rate, but 4th on Opponent Conversion rate
  • St Kilda, 16th on the ladder, are 17th on performances in final terms, but 7th on Opponent Conversion rate
  • Sydney, 3rd on the ladder, are 11th on performances in final terms, but 1st on 2nd Quarter performances
  • West Coast, 10th on the ladder, are 18th on Opponent Conversion rate, but 4th on Own Scoring Shots per game and in 3rd terms
  • Western Bulldogs, 15th on the ladder, are 18th on performances in 1st terms, but 6th on Own Conversion rate

Having read that list, it's probably no surprise that the weakest rank correlation between competition ladder position and ranking on any single metric is for Opponent Conversion rate, for which it is only +0.18. The next-weakest correlation is with Own Conversion rate where it's +0.51.

Strongest correlations are for Opponent Scoring Shots per game (+0.93), and for performances in 2nd Quarters (+0.92). Surprisingly - to me anyway - the correlation between performances in final terms and competition ladder position is a relatively weak +0.60.