On the basis of Team Dashboard metrics, including expected wins according the MoS Win Production Function, St Kilda and Gold Coast find themselves much higher on the competition ladder than they might reasonably expect.
St Kilda is ranked 16th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion, 15th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion, 13th on Own Scoring, 13th on Opponent Scoring, 12th on Q1s, 18th on Q3s, and 11th on Expected Wins. Gold Coast is ranked 14th on Own Scoring Shots, 17th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion,16th on Own Scoring, 16th on Opponent Scoring, 17th on Q2s, 11th on Q3s, and 10th on Expected Wins.
In a few weeks’ time, once there’s a little more signal and a little less noise, we might look at these statistics on a team-by-team basis.
But, for this week, here is the full Team Dashboard, from which those rankings are derived.
A few of the interesting features from it are that:
Collingwood and Gold Coast are yet to lose a Q1
Hawthorn are yet to lose a Q3 and have outscored their opponents 2.5 to 1 in that quarter
North Melbourne are yet to win a Q2
St Kilda are yet to win a Q3
Gold Coast have scored only 52 points to their opponents’ 100 points in Q2s