MatterOfStats 2019 : Team Dashboard for Round 18

The latest table of Rankings on Dashboard Metrics appears below.

Based on the MoS Win Production Function, the current Top 8 on the ladder are those with the highest Expected Wins, albeit in a different order. The largest differences between Actual and Expected Wins now belong to:

  • St Kilda (+1.8 wins, Actual less Expected)

  • Richmond (+1.5 wins)

  • Brisbane Lions (+1.3 wins)

  • West Coast (+1.1 wins)

  • Sydney (-1.9 wins)

  • GWS (-1.7 wins)

  • North Melbourne (-1.3 wins)

  • Adelaide and Carlton (-1.1 wins)

The relatively large number of teams with quite significant differences between Actual and Expected Wins suggests that the fundamental relationship between scoring metrics and success has altered substantially this season. The Win Production Function is based on the difference between Scoring Shots produced and conceded, and the difference between Own and Opponents’ Scoring Shot conversion. We can see that the rank correlations between ladder position and rankings on Scoring Shot Conversion are quite low - just +0.67 for Own Scoring Shot Conversion, and +0.43 for Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion.

Put simply, in an historical context, teams are not being as punished this season for allowing their opponents better scoring chances. Richmond and GWS are excellent examples of this. They’re ranked 15th and 14th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion, but sit 5th and 6th on the ladder.

The full Team Dashboard appears below, a few of the interesting features of which are:

  • Geelong, in 1st, are 2 and 3 in their last five games

  • Collingwood, in 4th, are 3 and 4 in their last seven games

  • GWS, in 6th, are 2 and 4 in their last six games

  • Adelaide, in 8th, are 1 and 3 in their last 4 games

  • Brisbane Lions have scored 1 point more than Geelong across their 17 games

  • Gold Coast have scored almost 200 points fewer than any other team

  • Essendon and Richmond are both in the Top 8 with percentages of less than 108

  • Western Bulldogs have scored more behinds than any other team except Brisbane Lions

  • Sydney, in 15th, have scored only 10 goals fewer than Essendon, in 7th

  • Sydney, in 15th, have conceded only 2 points more than Brisbane Lions, in 2nd, and 9 points fewer than Richmond, in 5th

  • Four teams are now within a goal of the Top 8