MatterOfStats 2026 : Team Dashboard for Round 21

Below is the latest Ranking on Dashboard Metrics table, which still suggests that the Saints and Giants are unlucky to not be in the Top 10, and that the Dogs and Blues are perhaps lucky to be there.

The metrics currently most rank correlated with ladder position are:

  • MoS Win Production Function: +0.96

  • Percentage of Quarters Won: +0.93

  • Own Points per Game: +0.88

  • Own Goals per Game: +0.84

  • Own Scoring Shots per Game: +0.83

  • Q4 Performances: +0.81

  • Q2 Performances: +0.76

  • Opponent Points per Game: +0.76

  • Own Scoring Shot Conversion: +0.76

  • Opponent Goals per Game: +0.73

  • Q3 Performances: +0.70

Those least rank correlated with ladder position are:

  • Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion: +0.27

Next, here’s the latest top half of the Team Dashboard, which shows, among other things, that:

  • Three teams have a winning streak of three games or more

  • Four teams have a losing streak of three games or more

  • Brisbane Lions have conceded more points than the four teams above them on the competition ladder, and the seven teams directly below them

  • Brisbane Lions have generated 28.8 scoring shots per game and Richmond 19.2

  • Fremantle have conceded just 19.8 scoring shots per game and Richmond 29.4

  • According to the MoS Win Production Function

    • Western Bulldogs have won 2.9 games more than expected based on their scoring statistics

    • Fremantle have won 1.6 games more than expected

    • Melbourne have won 1.5 games more than expected

    • Port Adelaide have won 2.8 games fewer than expected

    • Gold Coast have won 2 games fewer than expected

    • St Kilda have won 1.9 games fewer than expected

Next, here’s the bottom half, with quarter-by-quarter stati

  • St Kilda have won 85% of Q1s, but only 38% of Q3s

  • Geelong have won 80% of Q4s, but only 45% of Q3s

  • Essendon have won 50% of Q4s, but only 15% of Q1s

  • Melbourne joins Adelaide, Brisbane Lions, Fremantle, Hawthorn and Sydney as the only teams to have outscored their opponents in all four quarters (Collingwood’s Q1 percentage is now exactly 100)

  • Essendon, Richmond and West Coast remain the only teams to have been outscored by their opponents in all four quarters

  • Essendon have scored 35% of their points in Q4s.

  • St Kilda have conceded only 18% of their points in Q1s.

  • West Coast have converted at only 41% in Q1s

  • Gold Coast has converted at 63% in Q1s, but only 46% in Q4s

  • Brisbane Lions has converted at 62% in Q3s, but only 46% in Q2s

  • Adelaide has converted at 63% in Q1s

  • Richmond has converted at 38% in Q3s

  • Brisbane Lions and Carlton are both noteworthy for the difference between their opponents’ conversion rates in Q3 and Q4 compared to Q1 and Q2

  • Port Adelaide’s opponents have converted at 63% in Q1s

  • Melbourne’s opponents have converted at 61% in Q1s

  • Carlton’s opponents have converted at 61% in Q3s

  • Brisbane Lion’s opponents have converted at 61% in Q4s

  • Sydney’s opponents have converted at 41% in Q2s.