MatterOfStats 2016 : Team Dashboard for Round 4
/So the Roos are now the only team with an unbeaten record, yet have only the 8th-best percentage in the League and have conceded the 4th-highest number of Scoring Shots per game.
It's for this reason that the MoS Win Production Function has the Roos as the team with the largest positive discrepancy between Actual and Expected Games won. According to their Scoring Shot and Conversion statistics, we'd have expected the Roos to have won only maybe three and certainly not four games this season.
The only other team with a sizeable positive difference is Hawthorn, whose statistics would, in the normal course and on average, have won them about 0.8 games less than the three they've won. They have the competition's 9th-highest percentage, 11th-highest Scoring Shot production, and 4th-worst Opponent Conversion Rate.
Two other teams have won slightly fewer games than their statistics would imply: GWS, who've won 0.7 games fewer, and Fremantle, who've won 0.6 games fewer. GWS has the 7th-best percentage - better than both the Roos' and the Hawks' - and rank 3rd on Scoring Shots conceded per game.
Fremantle, despite lying 17th on the ladder, are ranked 12th on Scoring Shot production per game, and 11th on Opponent Conversion Rate.
Still, we've only a four-game sample at the moment, so these statistics are all moving around quite significantly from week-to-week.
